The Budget fallout continues apace, with some interesting friction appearing between Defra officials and those from the Treasury. The Westminster government is a massive machine, and one with a huge and historic majority – a powerful asset that is accompanied by a mandate to do as they wish. While it’s unlikely the farming community did much to ensure that Labour got elected, they are likely to have a lot to say in ensuring they don’t get re-elected!

Our industry has long memories, and the rural community will not forget the lies and broken promises that have been peddled from London in the build-up to the election and the Budget. Keir Starmer’s message to the NFU conference in 2023 was sympathetic and understanding, offering the impression that he stood with the industry. Indeed, Sir Keir, losing a farm is certainly not like losing any other business. It is a way of life, a public service, provides food security for our country, manages the land, and sustains rural communities. It would appear the ‘new existential risk’ of which he spoke at that conference is, in fact, his government. Biting the hand that feeds you is never a sensible way forward.

Agriculture Property Relief (APR) was the shot that has created the tsunami of duplicity and despair in the industry. There’s a definite feeling of betrayal from a government – and moreover a Prime Minister – who declared that APR would not be changed. From a man who said ‘it’s time to turn the page and start again’, it’s been a brutal kick in the face.

This government’s actions either show deliberate disrespect, an all-embracing lack of care and compassion, or complete ignorance of the rural industries. In the first four months of the new government, our industry has been ridden over roughshod without a thought for the wider effects to rural life.

Out with the frenzy of APR relief, we also have the bizarre decision to remove the ring-fenced budget for agriculture for the devolved countries, a move which could effectively create deeper divides between the nations, depending on the agendas of the devolved governments. When will someone in London realise that the whole of the UK industry is responsible for feeding the whole of the UK, and implement some common sense.

While it’s unlikely that there will be a sudden change on the APR policy, a move to kick the implementation date down the road for a few years, or to exclude people of a given age thus allowing people the time to adapt to the change, would at least help a little.

Along with thousands of others, I was in London on Tuesday. It was an incredibly humbling experience, and I can’t help thinking that such is the strength of feeling – both in the farming industry and in other areas such as the winter fuel allowance – that this new government will be in trouble very soon. The Budget issue which will raise the least revenue has caused the greatest furore – either quite an achievement or a classic failure. I must tip my hat to Olly Harrison and his fellow organisers for what they managed to achieve in such a short time. Whitehall should certainly take note.

Jeremy Clarkson will be the speaker who receives the most TV coverage, although Kemi Badenoch certainly collected the biggest cheer for announcing a reversal on APR after the next election. For me, it was labour peer Baroness Mallalieu who stole the show – when one of your own turns on you, you need to take heed, sit up and pay attention. Tuesday will not be the end of the APR Budget debacle but hopefully it has been the start of something quite significant.

It would appear that Sir Keir and his government are actively trying to rile the farming industry, enforcing controversial laws which appear designed to further decimate an industry with the worst mental health and suicide rate of any profession. Perhaps a better way to raise the same, or larger, amount of income would have been to add a few pence to a litre of red diesel. I’m sure this would have generally gone unnoticed and certainly would not have provoked the backlash that inheritance tax has done. Neither would it have threatened food security.

The furore of the Budget has almost diluted Donald Trump’s victory in the US – many thought he wouldn’t win, many feared he would. Moving forward, it remains to be seen how USA/UK relations unravel – the Republicans and the Labour party are not natural allies – but it’s likely Trump’s actions will not be louder than his words. His unpredictability in global policies might just ensure the world is a more peaceful place during his second spell. I hope so.

Next week, on November 28, there will be a rally in Edinburgh, although I remain unconvinced about this event happening before the Budget. The Budget for Scotland will have been written – at least in pencil – before Rachel Reeves’ bombshell. They now have the enviable position of having an extra £1.5 billion to spend. Hopefully this means fewer cuts than had been expected, and at least £620 million heading to agriculture – but will it?

Last week, at Agriscot, First Minister John Swinney took away any hope we have of the expected support by telling us nothing concrete in any way whatsoever. This seems to be a habit.

Smaller lobbying organisations always have to fight harder, more so when the larger ones get it wrong, and we have some big fights ahead. The Agriculture Framework Bill gave the existing – and future – Scottish Government power to control and manipulate our industry. Now we have also lost budget protection, the rural vote in Scotland will have very little impact on who controls Holyrood.

The first Westminster Labour Budget in 14 years will probably block any chance Labour had of making huge strides forward in the Scottish 2026 election – the exiting government have the chance to woo their own voters with enhanced budgets for the next two years.

Of course, it’s a double-edged sword – get it wrong and they fall on the sword. Either way, the battle for a fair agriculture budget will be a harsh uphill battle, and only after December 4 will we really know what we must rally for.

With a buoyant beef price in the lead-up to Christmas, a lot of thought will go into what awaits us next year. I predict a fairly strong start to 2025, as we have seen in the last couple of years, with February 14 now becoming a serious player in demand for beef. Thereafter, the challenges post-Easter will be the impact of the Budget’s cash grab on all businesses, with retailers and processors having to fork out many millions more to stand still.

I genuinely don’t think the retailer will increase the price of food – more likely they will create hikes in fuel and non-food goods. Processors will have to challenge efficiency and throughput benefits, as there is no room to squeeze the producers any more and cattle numbers will not allow that.