'Trump engaged with agriculture, despite being able to take those votes for granted, while Harris concentrated on getting out an urban vote'

The media were seemingly the only people surprised at Trump's victory in the United States.

He fought a nasty and immature campaign, but said exactly what people wanted to hear. Like Bill Clinton twenty years ago he sold hope in a style they liked. By contrast Harris was intellectual, honest and sincere – but she just never got 'down and dirty' with the voters that needed to jump camp for her to win. In the past week millions were bet in the UK on a Trump victory, despite claims it was a close race.

The 'repeating the same mistake in expectation of a different outcome' moment for Harris was when, like Hillary Clinton versus Trump in 2016, she lined up a celebrity gang to endorse her. Bill Clinton told his wife this cost her the election then. Harris made the same mistake, while Trump looked a fool dressed as a garbage collector, but got his vote out.

Lessons will be learned. By 2024 the Democrats might finally find a candidate with the appeal of Clinton or Obama. The blame game will begin now, but starting with Biden and changing to a candidate good on politics but weak on personality sealed their fate. Now the real blood-letting will begin, while Trump will be as self-congratulatory and mean-spirited as people expect. This was not the outcome many outside America wanted.

Certainly not at Westminster, where there is already bad blood between Trump and Keir Starmer over staff sent to help the Harris campaign. Prospects for a US/UK trade deal any time soon are off, as Trump is not known for setting aside personal grievances.

Many EU member states with right wing governments will welcome the outcome, but not the European Commission. It will see trouble ahead over trade and green issues and the diplomatic temperature will be frosty for a long time. The green movement around the world will be furious as Trump may well again rip up the global accords on climate change.

What Trump says and does are likely to be very different, although his political support puts him in a strong position to get things done. So what now for agriculture and will the Trump MAGA – make America great again – help its farmers? Trump certainly owes farmers for their support. His voting base there is solid, with the Midwest state of Indiana putting Trump on an early roll for the night ahead. It says a lot about the campaign tactics of both hopefuls that Trump courted the farm and rural vote, inducing meetings with the Farm Bureau, while Harris said little.

Trump told farmers what they wanted to hear, even if some of his ideas are contradictory. He has told farmers he will increase reference prices for food, but his message to a wider audience was that he would end inflationary pressures. He has promised better crop insurance arrangements which suggest he has around him staff that understand agriculture. At the same time his big headline message is a crackdown on immigration.

This would hit the farming and food industries that depend on legal and illegal migrant labour. That is however detail and Trump does not do detail. He however did show some engagement with agriculture, despite being able to take those votes for granted, while Harris concentrated on getting out an urban vote.

It is over trade that a Trump presidency could impact farming in Europe, although his real target is Chinese industrial imports. He has said he is prepared to ignore World Trade Organisation rules by imposing tariffs to protect American businesses – classic MAGA messaging.

This is despite trade wars being a zero sum game where tariffs provoke the same and economic growth is damaged. This is the big fear for the EU. It has already suffered in a trade war with the US over aircraft subsidies and does not want to go down that road again. The US is always in the top three or four export markets for EU food and drink, making this key sector vulnerable to any Trump driven policy change. Brussels is hoping his talk of tariffs was for the election only, but Trump is nothing if not unpredictable.

Logic and strategy are not his thing. Adding to European and British woes are concerns that Trump might cut spending to Ukraine and go softer on Putin.

It is all a new take on the old Chinese curse of being forced to live in interesting times.