Dust anticipated to quickly coat new farm reports

Catchy silage making, catchy harvesting, poor grass growth, and slow finishing of lambs and cattle from poor-quality grass are just some of the endless issues everyone is trying to deal with.

Looking at the rowan berries and the countryside in general at least in Dumfriesshire, it already has an autumn look about it which is unprecedented at the start of August.

An ‘Indian’ summer is now essential if the cows are not to face another eight-month winter housing period with all the difficulties and, more importantly, costs that brings. There is no sign of it yet, but weather forecasters with all the benefits of their ‘super computers’ seem to be worse at predicting our weather than they were 20 years ago – or maybe the weather is just more unpredictable. Who knows?

What was predictable, however, were the announcements by our new UK Labour government last week about the likely tax increases we will face in the Autumn Budget.

During the election campaign the usual promises were bandied about regarding no tax increases.

But, of course, blaming the previous government for under-reporting the size of the country’s financial ‘black hole’ now gives Rachel Reeves, the new Chancellor, all the excuses she needs to screw us again. The truth which every politician refuses to admit is that the NHS and social care systems in particular are totally unaffordable in their current form.

Indeed, many aspects of running government at a national and local level are totally unaffordable the way they are structured and administered. The ‘woke’ society we have created has seen to that, along with the total lack of control of capital spending in the public sector on every kind of infrastructure project you care to mention.

The result is budget deficits, ‘black holes’ in public finances and inevitable tax rises. Of particular interest to agriculture is the danger of changes to both capital gains tax and especially inheritance tax.

Land prices have been driven by the relief and shelter from IHT that land has attracted for years. It could be argued that this has had a negative impact on the ability of folk, either from within or outwith farming who are not well financed to be able to buy land, and I accept that. The idea that a young person can enter agriculture without significant capital is nonsense and, of course, land values are a factor

in this.

But not the only factor, as the CAPEX required to farm and the value of stock have rocketed. The starter farm or new entrant initiatives in Scotland may attract publicity and make politicians feel good, but they are little more than gimmicks. And this won’t change any time soon – whatever public policy interventions take place.

Of course, I do not have a crystal ball, but changes to IHT could have a significant impact on land values with major unintended consequences if the Chancellor isn’t careful. In trying to attack wealthy investors, the Treasury could end up holing family-owned small and medium-sized farm businesses below the waterline.

With borrowing costs relatively high and banks with security over the land, if the value of land falls significantly, which is possible, it is entirely feasible that those with high gearing could effectively end up in default.

I am not trying to frighten anybody, or predict the future, but the world has experienced many horrible unintended consequences from poor political decisions.

I have no idea what lobby organisations are currently saying to UK Government on this, but if I was running the NFU (in any part of the UK), I would have this as my number one lobbying priority between now and October.

You undermine the fundamental reasons for land ownership at your peril and, like it or not, owning land is not just about farming.

Meanwhile, back in Scotland, over tea and a scone with NFUS president Martin Kennedy, the First Minister and Cabinet Secretary re-announced the mind-numbing changes to agriculture support for us in 2025.

As well as the excitement of the 410-day calving interval which, frankly, on its own is total drivel, we will now apparently be able to choose between carbon, butterflies, plants, farmed animals, or rats as subjects for written reports to claim support. Quite what anyone, least of all the Scottish Government, is going to do with this information in these glossy documents (or audits as they are being called) is anyone’s guess. No doubt an army of inspectors will be recruited to read them and do precisely nothing with them.

Information is power. But information is only powerful if it is interpreted and implemented to inform decision-making or guide and enable change.

With no outcomes or actions that I’m aware of attached to this bureaucratic bullshit, then what’s the point?

It’s a bit like the agriculture census that we are all forced to complete. Does anyone apart from geeks actually care how many tractors or wheelbarrows, or how many horsepower or wheels they have?

We all know the answer to this – government wastes time and effort every year (that it can’t afford) going through this charade with no added value to anyone other than keeping folk in a job.

These new reports will be no more than a tick-box exercise and many smaller farmers or crofters will be worse off with them than without them.

And bigger, forward-thinking farmers already do soil analysis, carbon auditing, and have vet plans in place. Why? Because there are good financial/business reasons for doing them, not because Ag officials with no policy ideas can’t think of anything better.

Which, any way you cut it, even over tea and scones, is the only reason this rubbish is being thrust upon the industry.