Euro Notebook: Keeping Green aspirations on Track

AS September brings Brussels out of its summer slumber, a key question for policy makers and politicians is whether they can keep their green aspirations on track.

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They are now entering the last chance saloon. Come June 2024 the present European Commission and parliament will both end. Time will tell whether this will have been a high water mark for green legislation. Come the new year MEPs will have their sights set on getting re-elected.

With a cost of living crisis driven by food inflation they know voters are now more sceptical about green initiatives, no matter how worthy those may be.

From now to the end of the year a lot of legislation needs to be delivered before the commission and parliament become dead duck institutions. This is no mean challenge and the process will be far from automatic for some controversial legislation.

This has not been helped for Brussels by the resignation of the Dutch commissioner and commission vice president, Franz Timmemans, who was responsible for climate change and the green deal. He has decided to return to the Netherlands to fight as a potential prime minister in the November Dutch elections.

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There he will be taking on, amongst others, the newly resurgent Citizen Farmers Party. This will be an interesting battle, given that a big reason for this party's success was the imposition of EU green policies on Dutch farming and rural communities. Timmermans is seen as the architect of those policies. He will be replaced with a short term new Dutch commissioner, but his departure will damage the green side in Brussels, since he pushed hard for policies to which he was committed.

The farming lobby in Europe came tantalisingly close to a massive victory in July over nature restoration legislation. This goes beyond the green deal to reverse loss of biodiversity and it was only passed in the European parliament because a few members abstained from voting with their centre right groups that opposed this policy.

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Blocking this would have been a huge victory, but a win was a win for the other side, no matter how small the margin. However those opposed to this legislation still have an opportunity to achieve some change and delay.

That will take up time and resources the European Commission can ill afford. Plans are also in place for a curb on pesticide use in favour of 'natural alternatives'. The aim is a 50% reduction by 2030 and for Brussels this is a flagship policy it has told the green lobby it will deliver.

Farm ministers accept the politics behind this, but they are far from convinced viable alternatives exist. They do not want to risk making European agriculture less globally competitive, since that could rebound into claims this reduces food security and drives up prices.

They are also against mandatory targets for member states, even if there is a vague aspiration from Brussels for a 50% reduction in pesticide use by 2030. Curbing these plans by kicking them into touch would not be as big a victory for agriculture as blocking the nature restoration legislation would have been, but it would nonetheless be a good outcome.

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Also coming up is the re-licencing of glyphosate, still the most widely used herbicide in Europe. This has been delayed since last year but a decision must now be taken.

Signs are that this will be another win for common sense. Despite the claims to the contrary from some pressure groups the European Commission has not been able to find a solid, science-based reason not to re-licence glyphosate. If it ignores science it risks legal action by some global companies with very deep pockets, making an arbitrary decision unlikely.

NGTs novel genetic techniques or gene editing should be an easy decision for Brussels, but it has run into green opposition. Brussels made the mistake at hinting at labelling, when there was no reason for this, turning this into a common sense versus green rhetoric battle.

The current Spanish EU presidency is devoting its informal farm council next week to a debate on this issue, underlining that what should have been an easy decision in proving controversial. This should go through in the end, but it will again take the focus off other issues Brussels wants to pursue.

This suggests the advice of this Commission to the next Commission should be not to make promises to green groups you cannot deliver.