Coral thrives as climate debates continue

Farming never stops and what struck me is not differences as much as the similarities around this wonderful farming world of ours. Australian supermarkets always show a huge range and value for money in fresh produce sections.

Australian supermarket fresh produce sections in a working class suburb of Sydney With good weather and affordable fruit and veg you really need to work hard to be unhealthy in Australia. In the UK I believe that availability and cost of fresh produce has worsened post Brexit. This will store up long-term health problems, for both individuals and society, widening the poverty health gap. Poor health is already tragically holding the nation’s economy and individuals back hugely.

Agricultural growth continues

On previous visits over the decades to Australia the main issues were drought, bushfires and coral depletion on the Barrier Reef. What a difference now.

Five years ago farmers were shooting their bull sires in a drought amidst bushfires. Now beef prices are buoyant. I relished some delicious Wagyu beef on my travels. I’ve never seen eastern Australia so green at this time of year. Controlled bush burns have also made a comeback to reduce the fuel reservoir for unplanned fires/arson, as in the US.

Winter sown crops established well. With record soil water reserves in eastern states, prospects for spring sown crops are excellent. Total agricultural output is forecast up by Aus$3.7bn at $86.2bn for 2025 compared to $64bn for UK.

Bare ground July completely completed and full of harvested seed late September

Coral and COP29

Beef prices are high and even coral is growing at record rates on the Barrier Reef, confounding the doomsters. Coral growth and biodiversity is greater in warmer waters, such as the Coral Triangle of the Indonesian archipelago. Weather variability is not climate change. COP29 in fossil fuel rich Baku got off to a bad start, looking for $2trn per year, it seems with COP CEO corruption and Trump.

Even with lower projected prices the third largest 2025 Australian grain harvest by value is predicted. Despite a relatively modest harvest in global terms, seasonality means Australia punches above its weight in determining global prices and replenishing stocks. This despite what geographers term the ‘tyranny of distance’.

China’s grain needs

This is key with China’s fiscal stimulus to it’s economy and a need to rebuild stocks, as do Australia and Russia. China held 25% of the world’s stocks a year ago and needs feeding. It’s citizens will not be as compliant to famine as those in North Korea, whose economy is the same size as a mid sized city in Ohio.

A diplomatic lever I believe for the West. Food security is key to the future, as our forefathers saw when they set up the Scottish Society of Crop Research. We had a successful harvest dinner to celebrate SSCR’s centenary at Dundee last week. Life membership currently costs £15 at a special centenary rate.

Grading of record price table potatoes for sale as far East as Kharkiv on the Front UK food security and rural communities will be damaged by recent budget changes to inheritance and capital gains tax. No feasibility/risk assessment was done. Why would one invest in farming with such tax regimes? Why be an entrepreneur, building employment and food security? We already have an age crisis in farming, why would a youngster return to the farm to pay a tax bill? Trump’s tariffs and Rachel’s taxes a double whammy for farming and food safety/security. Closer relations with EU and Single Market now look critical.

India and China missed the opportunity to send a message to Ruzzia on territorial integrity at the BRICS summit hosted by Ruzzia in Kazan. They chose self interest and to ignore Ukraine. Even more disappointing to see the UN’s Gutteres attend. A pompous, weak and poor Secretary General. It’s clear where the battle lines for the 21st century are now drawn. Despots versus Democracy.

Starch potato harvest straight into factory for food grade potato starch production for food processing and biopolymer testing Time will tell whether these lines will be literal or metaphorical in Europe. Renewables require vast sources of rare minerals. Mineral wars may be as much a threat as those over water resources were thought to be? Even more need for national food/resource security policies.

The ante has been upped in this global struggle by the arrival of North Korean troops to fight with ‘boots on the ground’ alongside the Russians and Iranian and Chinese technology in Ukraine. No ‘redlines’ for these weapons, boots or bots! Biden has made a limited useful response. When will the West wake up and allow Ukrainians more freedom and resources to achieve victory for us all?

We should all ‘have Georgia on our mind’ on both sides of the Atlantic, as Trump’s victory and Putin’s election chicanery in east and west make life more difficult for Ukraine and Europe. Any unconscionable Trumpian deal on Ukrainian land also involves the Ukrainians behind enemy lines in awful conditions of torture and worse, we should not forget them.

Main base bringing starch potatoes from field for grading

Ukraine’s resilience

With our PickupsforPeace charity last week we successfully delivered our 500th aid filled vehicle to Ukraine. More needed than ever, amidst the latest Russian missile attacks. First Minister Swinney publicly applauded our leadership in this Ukraine Aid initiative at AgriScot last week.

In Brazil rains have finally fallen, later than usual after a season of drought and bush fires. Rains have now allowed first crop soya to be sown a little late, this delays sowing of second crop corn and limits yields and a switch to poorer sorghum instead to maintain essential soil cover.

Harvest Kalyna 2024 In Ukraine, potato harvest is finished after rain delays. Yields are budget or above except for processing variety Lady Claire. Nationally production is down 18% and prices up by 200%, reflecting shortage. Our sugar beet hit 70, wheat 7.5 and soya 3.2t/ha. Starch potatoes are in short supply in Europe, this is reflected in firm potato starch prices.

After a delayed harvest our starch factory is working full out. This despite sustained Russian attacks on electricity supplies ahead of winter. Our new potato store is finished and full of top quality seed. Bare ground in July, full by October. I’m astonished by the massive investment in new distribution and manufacturing hubs in Lviv. We’re not the only ones investing!

A recent Australian farmer’s survey cited biosecurity as their main concern, supermarket power and environmental laws next, Faith in government has dropped significantly over the last five years. Familiar? Nevertheless, 85% said they loved their job and communities.

Rewilding down under

Rewilding is in the headlines in Australia. Good farmland being bought by mining companies to ‘rewild’ into jarrah bushland for carbon offsets. This above their legal requirements to ‘buy’ green credentials. An insult to forefathers who toiled to make it productive. An obscenity in a world requiring food security and maximum production from every farmable hectare. Once lost it won’t come back. Familiar?

It’s critical that each cropped hectare produces to its potential, to allow other hectares to be released for biodiversity and other environmental ‘services’, land sparing. This has been my philosophy for 40 years, still true today and into our future. One resource we cannot waste by farming inefficiently, e.g. organically, is land. We must have good stewardship, but this needs to be coupled with efficiency for many reasons, from financial and rural community security through to maximising positive environmental impact at a landscape level. This too is a philosophy that is immutable in my personal view. Listening Rachel?

Harvest Kalyna 2024 Interesting to see organic sales dropping significantly as the cost of living crisis bites, they never went above low single figures. No credible evidence for significant environmental or food quality benefits have been found for organic after decades of trying, nor negatives for GMOs either.

The extent to which RegenAg cannibalize organic will be interesting. The same trend may be true for all the plant ‘milks’ that aren’t milk, but over processed and overpriced like vat grown ‘meat’ unworthy of the name. True vegetable proteins will have an increasing market as protein products requiring less processing.

It is difficult to see where the much greater numbers of cattle required to make livestock-based regenerative farming a success will find a market, or before that investment, as one drives the other. Consumers invariably give a different answer when confronted by clipboard or checkout.

EV issues persist

In a net zero twist it’s ironic a new electric fire engine, containing lithium-ion batteries, started a fire that consumed a new German fire station. Happily no-one was killed or injured this time. EV sales have collapsed due to higher prices, range anxiety and removal of subsidies and major manufacturers are downsizing production plans significantly. Ford lost $56k on each EV sold.

Why should poorer taxpayers subsidise virtue signalling by the richer classes? The threat of cheaper Chinese imports is also a factor and links back to support of Putin by China, with a desire by China to dominate parts of the US economy.

This was a factor in both Musk’s support of Trump and tariffs in elections this month. A key election for the world in this year of 60 elections worldwide as Trump appoints his circus of clowns. I have a long held interest in nitrous oxide, not to be confused with a now banned recreational use! This since working on its greenhouse gas emissions back in the 1980’s as part of my PhD.

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Climate models questioned

John Ryden and I developed a technique to measure in field N²O losses still in use by researchers today. I note Australia has just set up a new research programme, to measure losses of nitrous oxide from breakdown of crop residues.

They believe that losses, even under conservation tillage, are set at double on farm reality in emission models, penalising farmers. Who said the science was ‘settled’ and models predict the future with great precision and accuracy? We found back in the 80’s the production of N²O by anaerobic soil bacteria required not only wet soils, with waterlogging, but also soil temperatures above 5⁰C with high levels of available soil nitrate. Conditions unlikely to occur simultaneously in Australia or even wetter Scotland.

I wonder if the same is true of UK or Scottish emission models? A new paper in Nature shows global CO² absorption by plants has been underestimated by over 30% in climate models!

In both science and farming unquestioned answers can be at least as important as unanswered questions.