Despite improved profitability in the pig market, global pork producers are currently cautious on herd rebuilding due to factors such as the ongoing trade, disease risks, and uncertainty in product demand.

According to a report published by RaboResearch, biosecurity is still the top priority due to ongoing disease risks in the pork industry.

In 2024, the global sow herd remained steady through the year’s third quarter, with little sign to increase despite improved profitability in some regions.

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RaboResearch Analyst, Christine McCracken said: “We expect a seasonal production increase as temperatures cool and fresh corn becomes available, though herd health challenges typically rise during this period.”

Outbreaks of disease in South Korea, Russia, and the EU have led to production losses in the second half of 2024, limited herd rebuilding despite effective measures in biosecurity.

China’s moderating disease pressure should support herd growth returning in 2025, while some slight production growth is also expected in Brazil, the US, and southern EU countries.

Lower corn and soymeal costs have provided margin relief in some regions while tighter wheat supplies have kept production costs high in others. This year’s dry conditions in both South America and Asia has caused disparities in feed prices.

According to RaboResearch, North America’s large harvest has rebuilt stocks, but the EU and Asia have fallen short.

Ms McCracken explained: “With global stocks providing an adequate buffer, we project another year of moderate cost of gain for most leading pork producers in 2024/25.”

This comes amongst concerns around localised production shortfalls due to La Niña in Asia, southern South America, and northern Mexico.

Soybean planting in Brazil has already been delayed thanks to the dry conditions and this could reduce the second crop of corn acreage in 2025.

Consumption of pork continues to improve with lower energy costs helping to slow inflation. However, higher costs for services and food still weigh on consumers.

A stronger seasonal demand and competing against higher priced proteins this fourth quarter should support increased consumption, according to Ms McCracken.

“Consumer confidence remains a challenge in many markets due to ongoing economic difficulties.” She said.

“Consumption trends will impact prices, investment decisions, and global trade.”