Weather

WE are getting near to the end of October having had some very heavy periods of rain which caused some large areas of flooding – but it was followed by some dry and mild weather, allowing potato lifting to progress.

Winter sowing has also gone well, and winter sown crops are enjoying a late mild spell of weather as November approaches. Some parts of the UK have experienced their second-worst harvest on record after heavy rainfall and flooding.

Some areas received more than 300% of their average rainfall in September and their wheat harvest was down by an estimated 22% on last year. Oilseed rape was down by 33%.

Human-induced climate change is being blamed by scientists for a 20% increase in the average rainfall and stormy days in the UK during winter and autumn.

Wheat production

UK wheat production for 2024 is provisionally estimated at 11.1 million tonnes (Mt) which is a decrease of 2.9Mt compared to 2023.

This figure is also 21% below the five-year average but above the 9.7Mt crop in 2020. As a result, the UK will be much more reliant on imports than usual this season.

The north-east region of England experienced the most significant decline in wheat production with a 32% drop year on year compared to Scotland with a decrease in production of 12%. Russia has also had lower wheat production in 2024 of around 83Mt due to poor weather last spring and summer.

For 2025, wheat production in Russia is again estimated at around 80Mt due to delayed planting and reduced planted area, and would be the lowest Russian crop since 2021. But Ukraine is more upbeat, with winter wheat drilling 85.9% complete.

France, the EU’s largest wheat producer, had only managed to plant 21% of the expected soft wheat by October 21 which is a long way behind the five-year average of 47% completed.

Their winter barley is also delayed at 38% complete compared to 64% on average. This year, France had their smallest wheat crop in 40 years and wettest September in 25 years.

Cuts in production for Brazil, the EU, India and Russia, partly offset by increases for Ukraine, see world wheat production down 2.8Mt from the previous estimate to 794.98Mt but would be 4m tonnes up on last year.

The Liffe feed wheat futures have picked up over the past two weeks and November 2024 is currently up nearly £8 to £188.20, and for May 2025 up £8 to £202.50/t.

Wheat exports and imports

EU weekly wheat exports were up by 379,000t last week to 7.02Mt, which is now over 3Mt behind last year’s total. Forecasters expect the EU to export 10Mt less than last year at 24.9Mt.

The UK has imported 514,000t of wheat so far this year, but Nigeria is the largest importer, having taken in 1.114Mt. With smaller UK wheat and oilseed rape crops and below-average barley and oat crop, the UK market is more reliant on imports than usual this season.

A stronger pound often makes imports more attractive against UK grain, which in turn can put pressure on UK grain and oilseed prices. A weaker pound makes imports more expensive and can offer relative support to UK grain and oilseed prices.

UK wheat availability

In 2024-25, availability of wheat is estimated at 16.638Mt which is 9% down on the year.

This is largely due to an estimated 21% reduction in the UK 2024 wheat crop compared to a year earlier.

The decline in wheat supply is despite the heaviest opening stocks since at least 1999-2000 as well as increased imports, up 163,000 year on year.

This season, total domestic consumption of wheat is estimated at 14Mt, down 6% on the year. Wheat for human and industrial consumption is forecast to be down 3% on 2023-24, with usage for both flour milling and bioethanol production down on last year.

Wheat used for animal feed production is expected to fall by 9% this season compared to last year.

The balance of supply and demand in 2024-25 is estimated at 2.634Mt, down 23% on the year.

Looking at some of these figures reminds us that the UK’s reliance on imported food from overseas has been increasing.

It includes 78% of fruit and vegetables. It is estimated that, by 2050, about half of fruit and legumes would be imported from countries with climate issues and the supply of these products is projected to fall short of what would be needed to meet UK dietary recommendations in the future.

Maize

The world maize production is down 1.4m tonnes to a total of 1.217 billion tonnes (Bt) due to an increase in US production but also a small reduction in tonnage from Russia and Ukraine.

There is a 3.5Mt increase in consumption which rose to 1.223Bt and leaves end stocks 1.8Mt lower at 306.52Mt.

Adverse wet weather continues to hamper the French maize harvest, which is only 13% complete, compared to progress last year at 67% completed at this time due to their wettest September in 25 years.

Maize prices came under pressure due to the second-largest US maize crop of 119.7Mt and the second-largest maize crop on record, up 3% on last year, and their maize harvest is 47% complete with favourable weather conditions.

The UK imported 515,000t of maize in July and August which is 28% more than last year, 37% greater than the five-year average.

Whole and flaked maize for GB compound animal feed usage recorded a yearly rise of 23% for July and August, suggesting that maize has already become more competitive in the feed ration.

Barley

This season availability of barley is expected to increase by 1% year on year to 8,497Mt due to a 3% rise in production, despite a 4% and 60% in opening stocks and imports.

Total domestic consumption of barley in 2024-25 is forecast to increase 4% on 2023-24 and usage of barley in animal feed is expected to rise by 8% on the year.

The UK total barley production for 2024 is estimated at 7.2Mt which is an increase from 6.9Mt in 2023 but below the five-year figure of 7.5Mt.

The UK spring barley crop for 2024 is forecast at 4.76Mt, up 1.0m tonnes from last year, and the winter barley production for 2024 is forecast at 2.44m tonnes which is a 24% drop from 2023. Yields were lower across England while Scotland provisionally saw a 2% increase.

Despite feed barley being around a £30 discount to feed wheat and a £40-£45 discount to maize, fresh demand has been limited as compounders are well covered until the end of January.

Oats

Scottish oats harvested this year saw yields up 14% from last year and combined with a larger planted area saw production rise by 21% year on year with quality good as well and yields averaging 6.9t/ha.

The exportable surplus of oats could be over 190,000t but few have been exported so far.

The UK is forecast to have produced 999,000t, which is 169,000t up from last year, but is still below the five-year average of 1.01Mt.

Pulses

There is a strong domestic demand for feed beans for summer rations, but UK beans cannot compete with export prices from the Baltic countries.

UK beans are of better quality than those from abroad and so are in demand for human consumption.

Green peas are worth around £370 ex-farm with ample supplies available and with low levels of bleaching, and there is some demand for sales as well.

Oilseed rape

Oilseed rape prices have been supported by vegetable oil price increases due to rises in crude oil values along with relatively short supply. Black Sea rapeseed supplies have now ceased and EU crushers are sourcing oilseeds locally until Canadian and Australian seed arrives into Europe.

This has seen oilseed rape delivered into Erith for November at £413.50/t which is up £2 on the week and £416.50 for December delivery.

The UK will be more reliant on rapeseed imports this season due to a significant reduction in domestic production and lower global production will keep rapeseed prices elevated.

Both yields and planted areas are expected to be significantly lower in the UK and EU 27 with production cuts projected at -13% for the EU, -24% for Ukraine, and -28% for the UK compared to last year.

UK oilseed production for 2024 is estimated at 837,000t, a 31% decrease from the 1.22Mt harvested in 2023 and 432,000t below the five-year average.