Despite the ever-challenging weather conditions the Scottish government estimates this year’s harvest to fall just above the ten-year average.
The average production results predicted by ScotGov are for winter barley, OSR and wheat and estimate a total of around 3.1mt of cereal.
The report also predicts that the total area of cereals grown in Scotland is just lower than in 2023 at 428,000ha, with reductions in area of winter barley, wheat and OSR grown and increases in areas sown with spring barley and oats.
With the average yield for cereals predicted to increase by 1% to 7.2 t/ha.
These estimates are based on harvest yields given by a panel of experts at a crop report meeting and provisional land use areas from the June agricultural census and factor in information gathered at the end of September.
Industry experts have reported some very impressive spring barley this harvest and it is predicted that around 1.7mt, a 4% increase on the previous year, will have been harvested cropping at 6.6 t/ha.
The winter barley is estimated to be down 5% this year to around 329,000t, driven by a 7% decrease in area sown yet rises in yield 2% to 7.6 t/ha.
A noticeable decrease in wheat production has been attributed to a 4% drop in yield and 8% decrease in area down, resulting in a 12% decrease in production to around 827,000t.
With industry experts highlighting wide variations in yield across different soil types.
The ScotGov report prefixes their estimate on oat production due to a lack of data at this stage but predicts an estimate of 21% in production from last year, far exceeding the decade's average.
A 14% increase in yield and a 6% jump in the sown area are driving the production upward.
It is estimated that OSR has levelled off again too, following last year’s 20-year high, down 10% in sown area, with an 11% decrease in yield, and early estimates predict a harvest of around 133,000t. The final ScotGov results will be released in December following the conclusion of the 2024 harvest, providing further insights into Scotland's agricultural landscape and economic implications.
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