Weather

We had a good spell of dry weather in the latter half of September until rain came last week which was welcome for the recently sown oilseed rape and winter barley. 48.8mm of rain fell at Lochton near Coldstream in September to give a total for the year to date of 571mm or 22.47 inches. Crops are generally looking well and much better than they did at this time last year. Harvest is now nearly complete for spring barley and beans except for some areas in Scotland.

Uncropped area

After the difficult autumn and winter last year when a lot of winter crops failed to get planted this has resulted in the highest uncropped arable area in England since 2003. At 580.7Kha, the 2024 uncropped area is more than double the level of 2023 and the highest for 21 years.

This area of land has either been used for bare fallow which amounts to 275.7ha or arable land used for environmental benefit which amounts to 305Kha. The latter category includes pollen and nectar flower mixes, winter bird food, buffer strips on arable land, and flower rich margins.

The estimate of productive land not being used equates to 6% of the total croppable area in England but this land is likely to be the poorer performing areas where historically it has been difficult to establish crops.

End of season stocks

The UK end of season stocks for wheat and barley now sits at 2987mt and 1.218mt respectively. For wheat, these closing stock figures are the highest since at least 1999-2000, and just below the 3045mt of wheat estimated last May.

This heavy wheat ending stocks figure will partially offset the forecast decline in wheat production for the 2024-25 season. However, if domestic consumption is to stay relatively in line with recent trends the UK will still rely on firm wheat imports this season to cover the lack of domestic supply.

Recently UK liffee feed wheat futures eased mainly on the back of easing tensions in the Black Sea following the recent missile strike on a Ukrainian cargo vessel carrying wheat to Egypt which highlighted the potential disruption of supplies from the Black Sea which currently has the cheapest wheat available for sale.

An explosion and fire attack on the Ukraine Black Sea port of Odessa again highlighted the potential disruption to Black Sea wheat supplies. Currently November 2024 feed wheat futures stand at £182/t which is down £4 from two weeks ago and May 2025 futures are at £196.15/t, down £2.35/t.

These figures are very volatile as recently the futures recovered from another previous low due to the strength of sterling which reached its highest level against the euro and the US dollar since April 2022 as the Bank of England left the UK base rate unchanged and the Federal Reserve cut US interest rates by 0.5% which was its first cut in four years and the European Central Bank also cut its interest rate.

The Bank of England voted to hold interest rate at its current level of 5% as the rate of inflation continued at 2.2% which was below the Bank of England’s target of 2%.

Stronger sterling usually makes it cheaper to import products priced in other currency and more expensive to export to those countries. As such, a rise in the value of sterling usually puts downward pressure on UK grain and oilseed prices.

If world markets rise, strengthened sterling usually reduces the amount of support for UK grain and oilseed prices, but if world prices decline, UK grain and oilseed prices can fall by a bigger amount.

UK wheat imports

In the latter half of 2023-24 limited availability of full specification milling wheat and expectations of a smaller 2024 wheat crop encouraged wheat imports. Going forward to the 2024-25 marketing year, the strong pace of wheat imports has continued, largely due to the lower expected UK crop size.

The 321kt of imports in July 2024 exceeded last July’s 93kt and the five-year average for July of 150kt. This also exceeds the total volume of wheat imported for both July and August’s 249kt last year.

In July 2024 Germany exported 137kt to the UK with Denmark second at 66kt and Canada third with 55kt

The German wheat crop has been under pressure this year due to wet weather and is estimated to produce 18.8mt of wheat this year which would be 13% less than last year. The increased UK imports has kept the domestic UK milling wheat premiums lower than might have been expected especially with below average yields and reduced production this year.

Wheat exports

EU wheat exports continue to struggle, even with a smaller surplus than last year which this year amounts to around 25mt. Up until September 22, 5.855mt have been moved compared to 7.675mt last year. Romania accounts for most of the EU wheat exported at 1.95mt with France at only 500,000t.

The US have shipped 7.685mt which is 36% ahead of last year and is over a third of the season’s estimated exportable surplus.

Russia is thought to have exported 5.5mt, which is the same as last year, and Ukraine has exported 5.3mt which means over a third of their estimated surplus has gone in the first quarter of the season.

As already mentioned, UK winter crop planting has been going well but this is not the case in other parts of the world.

Russia’s winter wheat crop has had the slowest start in 11 years due to drought conditions which is also affecting planting in the Ukraine but four regions in Siberia have declared a state of emergency due to excessive rain and flooding.

World wheat stocks

World production is now forecast to be 796.88mt and a rise in consumption of 900,000t will see a substantial cut in year-end stocks to around 257.22mt which would be 8mt down on last year.

Maize

Overall world maize year-end stocks are forecast at 308.35mt and with drought in Eastern Ukraine and Russia, coupled with extensive flooding in central Europe, this could see further cuts in production.

Ukraine is expected to produce 27.2mt, the EU forecast is put at 57mt of maize and as of September 10, 26% of the US corn belt has been affected by drought, but rain was expected soon.

Chinese demand for US maize has eased recently, in the first eight months of 2024, China imported 12.6mt of US maize, down nearly 16% from the same period a year ago.

Barley

The Scottish Spring barley harvest has been quoted as mixed but there has generally been good reports of quality and yield. This has seen malting barley premiums come under pressure and merchants are reporting more spring barley sold as feed, as the discount to wheat which was previously around £30/t is now nearer £20/t. Animal feed compounders are buying tonnage at this lower discount level and have cover until the end of the year.

Pulses

As harvest gets well through now for beans, yields are reported as above the five-year average following two years of lower yields. Domestic demand remains limited as alternative protein sources such as soya and rapeseed meal are seen as better value by UK feed compounders.

Quality has been good, compared to crops in the Baltic countries which have insect damage. Soon there will be tonnage available from Australia which is also insect free so this will put pressure on prices once again.

Oilseed rape

Estimates for the final EU-27 rapeseed production is thought to have dropped to around 17mt and Canada has increased its estimated total production of Canola to around 19mt.

Delivered rapeseed into Erith for November is quoted at £395/t and for May 2025 at £402 which was up £1 from the previous week due in part to the rise in the strength of Sterling.

Planting of European rapeseed will be lower in comparison to last year, as current prices fail to offer an attractive risk/reward for growers. The UK may be one of the worst affected areas, with the 2025 crop set to be below 1mt again.

Correction

Two weeks ago, the photo below Doug’s article showed Robert Gaston sowing winter barley on Robert’s own family farmland and not as written. Apologies for the error.