Winter wheat set for strong 2024 recovery

Eric Anderson of Scottish Agronomy notes the economic pressures on crop rotations, with winter wheat expected to recover strongly this season as it provides the highest gross margin for most combinable crop farms.

The AHDB predicts winter milling wheat and feed wheat will lead the way in 2025 harvests due to favourable prices and strong yield potential, assuming weather conditions allow.

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Reduced appeal

Meanwhile, Mr Anderson points out that rising costs and poor returns continue to undermine winter barley’s appeal, and there are significant challenges with oilseed rape due to difficulties in controlling cabbage stem flea beetle and rape winter stem weevil.

Light leaf spot is becoming harder to manage with prothioconazole, and concerns about verticillium on stem bases have emerged following wet, mild conditions and low soil nitrogen. Farmers are also struggling to find profitable crops that can be sown early enough to precede oilseed rape. Mr Anderson said: “Every day counts at that time of year. If you choose spring barley before oilseed rape, late autumns present real challenges. Equally, if you grow winter barley beforehand, can you make it pay? You need at least 8.5t/ha to cover the costs.”

Weed control, especially grassweeds, is another key factor influencing rotations..

For example, the loss of an Extension of Authorisation for Minor Use (EAMU) for Liberator in winter oats means there is no longer an approved product for annual meadow grass control in oats.

With winter wheat set to increase this autumn, farmers must be mindful of potential risks, including challenges with grassweed control, and the risk of pests and diseases. Second wheat crops, in particular, are susceptible to take-all, which can reduce yields by 10-15% compared with first wheats.

“Take-all is usually more severe in second to fourth consecutive cereal crops, although the yield loss tends to taper off in continuous cereals after the sixth year.”

Wet soils last autumn and this spring, along with mild conditions, have contributed to a build-up of take-all inoculum, raising concerns for next season.

Robert Brewster (Image: web)

Take-all risk factors:

• Second, third, and fourth cereal crops, particularly after high disease pressure in previous years
• Wheat and barley (both winter and spring)
• Light soils and poor drainage
• Early sowing
• Light, fluffy seedbeds
• Cereal volunteers and grassweeds, such as couch and brome, which carry the fungus through the rotation
• Fungus thrives in warm soils (over 10-12°C)
• Higher seed rates often result in more primary and secondary infections
• Low or very low soil phosphate status
• Scottish Agronomy offers these tips for managing take-all:
• Include a one-year break from susceptible crops, typically broadleaf crops or oats
• Delay drilling where possible, as take-all declines after harvest, with risks halved by late October
• A two-year ryegrass ley before wheat can promote antagonistic fungi, which delays severe take-all onset
• Establish crops well and apply readily soluble phosphate to promote strong rooting
• Consider reducing seed rates, while balancing against establishment potential
• Choose varieties with proven second wheat performance. Soft wheats like Bamford, LG Skyscraper, and KWS Zealum have performed well in trials, while hard wheats such as LG Beowulf, SY Insitor, and KWS Dawsum also showed resilience
• Use Latitude (silthiofam) seed treatment on second wheats sown before late October. Beyond that, the benefit diminishes
• Long-term trials show a yield boost of 0.55t/ha for Latitude-treated second wheats
• Pair Latitude with a single-purpose dressing to address seed-borne diseases, such as bunt and microdochium. Home-saved seed should be tested, especially given the higher microdochium risk from wet pre-harvest conditions