A worrying new 9% decrease in males at leks in 2024 could be an indicator that the Capercaillie is heading into its final phase in Scotland’s forests.

This is the stark message from ‘hands on’ land managers who believe the Scottish people may represent the last chance to save the species from a second extinction.

Only 153 male birds were recorded at leks in key forests this year, 15 less than this time last year.

Should this continue, it would result in an estimated further decline of 43% in Capercaillie numbers by the time the next national survey is undertaken in 2027/28, on top of a 50% decline in the previous one.

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Land managers now believe pressure from the public- armed with the facts- could be the last remaining hope the Capercaillie has of remaining viable as a breeding species in our woods.

A new emergency action plan for the species is due to be published shortly by Scottish Government’s nature advisers, NatureScot and the Cairngorms National Park.

However, practitioners within the stakeholder group - set up to save Capercaillie - do not believe it adequately addresses the problem they see as fundamental: the increasing pressure on eggs and chicks from common and protected predators.

Abundant predators such as foxes and crows, which can legally be controlled, are impacting breeding success as are rising populations of protected pine marten, badgers and goshawks.

For decades, deer stalkers and gamekeepers have sat alongside scientists, conservationists, forestry and national park officials on the Capercaillie taskforce, looking at ways to stem declines.

Despite warning at the outset that failure to ease predation pressure would spell disaster, practitioners’ opinions have been treated as peripheral within the Scottish Capercaillie Group.

“We said, 20 years ago, that Capercaillie would become extinct in our lifetime. We were told, then, we had no evidence and that what we were saying was anecdotal,” said a source within the practitioner group.

Their hopes of a more robust conservation approach were raised in 2022 when a report by the Scientific Advisory Group (SAC) of NatureScot to Scottish Ministers backed their observations, stating a reduction in predators would ‘rapidly improve’ breeding success’.

However, since then, former green minister Lorna Slater, requested that investment in habitat restoration should continue, to help Capercaillie.

This raises concerns that not all the recommendations from the SAC report will be followed and the urgency will be lost.

Furthermore, instead of controlling foxes and crows, many land managers within the Scottish Capercaillie range have been encouraged to choose the less tested option of diversionary feeding predators.

Whilst research on artificial nests suggested diversionary feeding has the potential to be successful, there has been no recovery in Capercaillie numbers as a result- and now a further loss of lekking males has been reported.

“When working in these forests every day, we have been involved with populations of Capercaillie all of our lives. We’ve witnessed this dramatic decline with our own eyes and feel compelled to inform the public of the current situation,” said a group practitioner and member of The Scottish Gamekeepers Association (SGA).

“Sadly, everything we said in the past has been borne out in the recent counts. The numbers don’t lie.

“The last chance, therefore, is for the public to know the facts, with no spin.

“Maybe it is only through the public knowing what is happening, and asking questions, that we can save the Capercaillie. That is all we want; that people know the truth.

“By making a plea to the public, maybe a bigger discussion outside of Capercaillie circles can begin, and we can get to the solutions the bird needs to remain here.”

Influential research by leading Capercaillie scientists found that, to maintain populations at existing levels, a ratio of 0.6 chicks per hen was required during breeding. That ratio has not been met in Scotland for the last six years, suggesting more declines in future.