Weather

HARVEST has progressed throughout August with a lot of good weather but there was still 68.8mm of rain at Lochton near Coldstream last month to give a total for the year to date of 522mm (or 20.5 inches). Earlier this week, on September 1, some heavy rain fell followed by some very dull weather which will hold up proceedings but it has also been a good spell to get some early winter crops sown as well.

Winter barley

The AHDB has released its third 2024 harvest update as of August 28 and yields of winter barley are down 13% on the five-year average yield across the UK at 6.12t/ha.

There has been significant deviation in yields between regions where some areas were up 22% on average and other areas where yields were down 21% below average. Specific weight has averaged 64kg/hl across all regions and nitrogen levels have been low for winter barley at 1.5%, where normally it would be around 1.75%.

Oilseed rape

The winter oilseed rape harvest is now complete, and yields are down in most regions by 7% at an average of 3t/ha. Some areas had yields down by as much as 26% on the five-year average and yields tended to be better on lighter ground.

Rapeseed prices have been under pressure over the past few weeks due to two main factors – biodiesel demand and a soon-to-be-harvested US soyabean crop. Rapeseed delivered into Erith for September was quoted at £384.50/t which is down £2 on last week and, for May 2025, down £1 to £396.50/t.

Oats

As of August 28, 61% of the UK oat crop had been cut. Oat yields have been variable across the UK and on average the yield is down 6% at 5.12t/ha. Winter oat quality so far has been good, and most samples are of milling specification.

Spring barley

Additionally, as of August 28, 32% of the UK spring barley crop had been harvested which last year at this time was 42% complete.

The average yield is quoted as down 6% on the five-year average at 5.5t/ha but should improve when the Scottish figures are included.

Specific weight is averaging 65kg/ha with nitrogen content at 1.45%. Malting barley premiums have come under pressure in the south of England with plenty of good samples on offer and barley’s discount to wheat has narrowed from £27/t two weeks ago down to £20/t.

Wheat

The wheat harvest in the UK at the end of August was 88% complete compared to 63% this time last year, and the five-year average of 60% complete included Scotland with 12% of wheat harvested.

Yields in the UK are down 8% on the five-year average, but again in some areas yields were slightly better than the five-year average. Specific weights and Hagbergs have been good, but due to a lot of dull weather protein content is low averaging generally around 11.5-12% but with reports of high volumes of imports of high protein wheat which will be used to blend with lower protein UK samples.

On August 22, full specification group one bread wheat varieties with minimum 13% protein, 250 Hagberg and 76kg/hl delivered into the north west of England in November 2024 was quoted at £257.50/t.

This equated to £76/t above the November 2024 UK feed wheat futures price on the same date. This is down from July when it was £80.50 above the November 2024 futures contract.

Due to protein content which is a problem in Europe as well, and the smaller UK wheat area for harvest 2024, it means the premium remains historically strong.

Currently, the November liffe feed wheat futures stand at £181.25/t which is down £4 from two weeks ago, and May 2025 futures are down £5 at £193.55/t.

Pulses

Feed beans are valued at a £40 premium to London feed wheat futures and there has been some export business done.

Domestic demand is still low as feed compounders want cheaper inputs for their animal feed rations such as rapeseed meal or soybeans.

Demand for high-quality human consumption beans is still strong with prices at a £20 premium over feed beans. This premium is expected to be reduced when the Baltic countries’ harvest crop reaches the market but their early crop has relatively high levels of bruchid beetles.

Pea yields and quality have been good and harvested with minimal bleaching. Large blue peas are suitable for micronising and are valued at around £370/t ex-farm.

EU crops

The EU Commission cut its estimate of the 2024 EU-27 soft wheat crop from 120.8mt to 116.1mt and barley production is now down to 51.3mt, maize reduced to 61.7mt, and rapeseed has also been reduced to 18mt.

Provisional French wheat quality results show poor specific weights and lower protein content, and just 30% of the 2024 French soft wheat crop meets or exceeds 76kg/hl while 78% of the crop has a protein content above 11% compared to the five-year average of 85%.

Germany is also forecasting its wheat production down 15% on the year to 18.8mt. These figures are due to the poor weather conditions where they had excessively wet conditions throughout summer in some areas, and hot temperatures and lack of water in the southern areas of Europe.

This affected their maize crop as well where maize yields were reduced from 7.24t/ha down to 7.03t/ha which is 4% below average.

Imports and exports

As of August 25, EU wheat exports total 3.927mt which compares to 5.038mt last season. Imports are 131,000t behind last year at 955,000t.

Normally, Spain is a large importer, but this year has a crop that has doubled from last year at 6.75mt so it would be expected that imports will be less, but Egypt remains the largest buyer of wheat at 504,000t.

Russia and Ukraine continue to export as much wheat as they can which is keeping wheat prices down. Russia is looking to export 5mt each month and its wheat harvest this year is put at 83mt. Ukraine, whose harvest this year increased to 21.7mt of wheat, has since July 1 exported six million tonnes of produce, up from 3.6mt last year, which included 2.8mt of wheat.

Forecasters expect Ukraine to export 14mt of wheat this season.

Canada is the world’s third-largest wheat exporter after Russia and the EU, and this year crop estimates in Canada are put at 34.4mt, which would be up on last year’s total of 32.9mt.

UK wheat harvest

With the UK wheat yield projected at an average of 7.5t/ha, this would be a 7% drop on the five-year average.

With current area and yield estimates pointing to wheat production in the range of 10.8-11.7mt, it will be well below the five-year average of 13.9mt and last season’s crop of 14.0mt, but not likely to be as small as the 9.7mt crop harvested in 2020.

The 2024 wheat area in England is estimated at 1,402,000ha, 11% down on the year and the five-year average – and is the second-lowest English wheat area since at least 1983.

Ergot

There are reports of increased ergot in wheat crops this year where conditions were cool and wet during flowering.

Another factor is that areas with a lot of grassweeds and early flowering grassweeds, such as in field margins, may have increased ergot levels.

Given the zero visible ergot tolerance policy in the milling wheat trade, the need to clean ergot from wheat prior to the crop leaving the farm will come at a cost of approximately £18/t.

Although it is better to be ergot free rather than be rejected at the point of delivery, which would incur a greater cost.