The future stability of the Welsh beef industry could be in jeopardy after new half-yearly data reveals a serious shrinkage in cattle supply.

There were 213,200 calf birth registrations in Wales during the first six months of 2024, a decrease of over 10,000 calves year-on-year and a fall of four per cent compared to Jan-June 2023, according to newly released figures from British Cattle Movement Service (BCMS) and reported in the latest edition of the Market Bulletin, published by Hybu Cig Cymru-Meat Promotion Wales (HCC).

“This marks the lowest number of half-year calf registrations recorded in Wales in several years, well below the peak of nearly 230,000 head in 2021,” said Glesni Phillips, HCC’s intelligence, analysis and business insight executive.

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“This decline also mirrors trends across the rest of Britain, with English registrations also four per cent down and Scottish 2% down.

“As cattle numbers in key age brackets fall, there are serious concerns around the critical mass needed to promote and maintain industry stability, which presents an overall concerning outlook for beef production,” warned Glesni.

The BCMS data reveals the number of calves that could be available for beef production has fallen to 173,600 head, its lowest level in several years.

“Although some of the beef females will be retained as suckler replacements in the herd, this figure is four per cent lower- that’s 7400 head- than the number available during the first half of 2023 and it’s likely to have significant implications for the future of beef supply in Wales.”

Market Bulletin offers a more detailed breakdown of the figures. Short-term cattle supply across GB is expected to remain relatively stable, with the number of cattle aged 12-30 months down just 0.3% year-on-year.

However, looking ahead, the number of cattle in the 0–12-month age bracket is significantly lower, down by 4%, suggesting that future beef supply across GB could be constrained.

Female dairy calf registrations in Wales between January and June decreased by 6% compared to the same period in 2023. Male dairy calf numbers were down by 14%, resulting in an overall decline of eight per cent, or nearly 5100 head in the number of dairy calf registrations.

Beef calf registrations were down 3%t - or 4600 head - to nearly 158,100 head in this half-year period, some 2% lower than 2022 and the lowest figure since 2019.

“Both beef female and male calf registrations saw similar year-on-year declines of three per cent, while the gender distribution remained relatively stable. Beef registrations made up 74% of total calf registrations in Wales, up from 70% in 2021. This shift in the balance between dairy and beef within the Welsh herd could change the future supply of beef if this trend continues,” said Glesni.