Harvest report: Winter Barley

As of mid-August, winter barley had all been cut compared to last year when 94% had been completed at this time. The average reported yield, as per the AHDB’s second 2024 harvest report for the UK for winter barley, is 6.3t/ha – 11% down on the UK five-year average.Winter malting barley quality is good, although there have been some lower bushel weights and subsequently lower screenings, and specific weights are averaging 64kg/hl across the UK. Nitrogen levels within the winter malting barley samples have averaged 1.5% which is low as maltsters are looking for samples of up to 1.75% and this could affect exports as a higher nitrogen level up to 1.85% is required for continental malting.

Harvest report: Spring barley

Across the UK, as of mid-August, only 7% of the area had been cut, which is slightly ahead of 5% last year at this time but behind the five-year average of 9% completed. With a few samples cut early, results indicate that yields are promising, and samples have been very good with specific weights between 65-68 kg/hl and nitrogen levels averaging 1.45N.

Harvest report: Oats

Again, as of mid -August, 22% of the UK crop had been cut, which is ahead of last year when 5% had been harvested but behind the hot dry summer of 2022 when 35% had been combined. Winter oat yields have been disappointing but early reports of spring oats are encouraging although yields for both winter and spring oats are down by 6%. Specific weights have averaged 53Kg/hl with quality so far good and most samples are of milling specification.

Harvest report: Wheat

As of mid-August, 37%, of UK wheat had been harvested with Scotland still a week or so away from starting. This year’s progress reflects the total wheat area, including spring wheat as the extreme weather meant some winter varieties were planted later than usual, plus there is a greater spring wheat area than usual.

However, progress appears to be ahead of last year when just 5% of winter wheat had been cut. At an average of 7.5t/ha, reported yields are down 7% on the five-year average. Specific weights have been around 76-77kg/hl for milling quality samples and some feed wheat samples have been over 80kg/hl. Early reports of milling wheat proteins have been disappointing but as the harvest has progressed proteins have improved. Wheat futures have been easing recently and November 2024 has eased by £4 from two weeks ago to £185/t and for May 2025 down £3 to £198.50/t.

Harvest report: Oilseed rape

By mid-August, oilseed rape crop had been completed apart from some areas in Scotland and it was estimated that 93% had been harvested – ahead of the 76% cut by the same time in 2023 and 77% on average over the past five years. Yields are down 9% across the UK at an average of 2.93t/ha and 29% down on the five-year average. The average oil content is reported to be 45% with very few samples below 44% and high erucic acid rape varieties have produced oil content of more than 47%.

EU harvest update

Across the EU-27, soft wheat production is now forecast at 116.5mt which is 5.8mt below previous estimates and would be the smallest crop since 2018.

The French government cut its forecast production by 3.3mt to 25.2mt which is 25% down from last year and the smallest crop since 1983 at 24.5mt. Their average yield is put at 5.944t/ha, compared to 7.37t/h last year and almost 19% below the previous five-year average.

Germany has estimated its 2024 wheat crop at 19.7mt which would be the lowest since 2003. The EU barley crop at 50.6mt would still be above the crop total of 2023 which was very small and would be below their five-year average.

The EU maize production is estimated at around 60mt which is less than last year despite a larger planted area due to heatwaves in Eastern Europe. Russia has reduced its wheat production for this year down to 83mt compared to last year’s 91.5mt.

Global wheat

Even with a reduced EU wheat tonnage this year there is increased production in Australia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan. World production is forecast to rise by 8.5mt from last year to a record 798.28mt. World wheat usage is also up 5mt to a record 804mt and leaves year-end stocks 5.7mt down on last year at 256.6mt. This will be the fifth consecutive year we have seen a fall in world wheat stocks and will be the lowest for nine years.

Russian wheat exports for June were estimated 14% above last year at 4.3mt. However, July exports were estimated 20% lower at 3.6mt which is partly due to lower prices and Turkey’s ban of wheat imports until October 15. Turkey was Russia’s second-largest export destination for wheat having bought 7mt.

Russian wheat prices are notably lower than last year due to its wheat stocks estimated at 20.3mt in July – 21% higher in comparison to last year. Low US wheat prices are attracting increased business and export sales are 42% ahead of last year.

Pulses

The bean harvest this year has seen early yields ranging from 3.7 to 4.5t/ha. Feed beans have maintained a premium of around £40/t over London wheat futures. Feed bean demand is hindered by lower-priced beans from Ukraine and Russia, which are £15 per tonne cheaper, and beans are also more expensive than alternative inputs for animal feed rations such as soybeans which have seen prices fall to a four-year low.

In contrast, there is a strong demand currently for high-quality human consumption beans, with a £20 premium over feed beans. The pea harvest is now under way and appears to be yielding well. Large blue peas that are suitable for micronising are worth around £370/t ex-farm, while feed peas are worth the same as feed beans.

Maize

Maize production is forecast to be down by 5mt to 1.225bnt which is mostly offset by a cut in consumption of 4m tonnes to 1.218bnt. End stocks are 3mt down on the year at 310.17mt. Ukraine maize production was down 27.2mt and EU maize production is down to 60.5mt. The US is looking at a maize harvest of 384.7mt but due to increased maize exports it leaves US end stocks at 52.7mt and is the largest US ending stocks in six years.

Soybeans

The 2024-25 US soybean production is now expected to reach 124.9mt and global production among the main exporters, including Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and the US, is now estimated to be up 9.1% on last year and 15.9% higher than the five-year average.

Ending stocks of the major soybean exporters are now projected to rise to 78.3mt, up 26.8% from 2023-24, and if realised would be the largest end stock total for major exporters since 2018-19.

Oilseed Rape

With a larger soybean crop this is putting pressure on rapeseed prices although rapeseed delivered into Erith for August delivery was quoted at £394/t – this was 50p up on the previous week but down £1 for November delivery at £400/t.

Rapeseed crops across Europe have not done well this year leading to the smallest crop in recent history, in contrast to the large US soybean crop, due to very favourable crop growing conditions.

UK rapeseed yields have been low, but little flea beetle activity has been reported which should be good news for those looking to plant rapeseed again soon.

Canada has been suffering from hot, dry weather which has led to severe crop stress in their canola crop with 87% of the agricultural land in the Canadian Prairies classified as abnormally dry in July which was up from 32% at the end of June. With fewer exports forecast from key producing countries this season, a poorer yielding rapeseed crop in Canada could reduce the already tighter global rapeseed balance going forward into next year.