According to the USDA’s crop progress report released this week, 88% of the US maize crop has reached the silking phase, which is on par with the average. Furthermore, 46% of the crop has entered the dough phase, ahead of the five-year average of 38%.

Regarding crop conditions as of the week ending August 4, 67% of the maize crop is in good or excellent condition. This is an improvement from 57% last year, although slightly down from 68% last week. Nonetheless, it remains well above the five-year average of 62%.

Looking ahead, forecasts of cooler and wetter weather across key growing regions could be beneficial to the crop.

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European Maize in Poor Condition

While US maize is looking promising, European conditions are causing concern. A Ukrainian producers group reported yesterday that a record heatwave in July could reduce the 2024 maize harvest by about 6mt compared to last season.

Other parts of Eastern Europe are also struggling, with yield forecasts in Bulgaria, Hungary, and Romania all being downgraded in the most recent MARS report.

Looking ahead, temperatures are expected to remain higher than normal over the coming week in Eastern Europe, although some rain is forecasted, which could offer relief to the crops.

Scottish impact

Given the expectations of tighter global and domestic wheat supplies this season, there is likely to be a shift in demand towards maize. Consequently, any change in maize market prices will likely impact wheat.

If the hot and dry weather persists across Eastern Europe, prices could push upwards. However, this support could be balanced out or capped by the good conditions and the forecasted bumper crop in the US.