Weather

SO far this month the weather has remained good to allow the combines to get the winter barley cut and now the oilseed rape harvest is well under way. Temperatures have risen to near average for the time of year, but it took a long time for that to happen.

There are forecasts for wind this week which can do damage to ripe standing crops very quickly and it is a few years since there has been any crop loss due to wind. July finished with 77mm or 3 inches of rain to give a total for the year to date of 453mm, or nearly 18 inches which was recorded at Lochton near Coldstream, but other areas have had a lot more rain as well.

Harvest report

The AHDB has published its first harvest progress report of 2024 up to July 31. With the better weather harvest has progressed well and 85% of the GB winter barley has been completed which is well ahead of last year at this time when harvest was 48% complete and the five-year average, which is 51% complete.

Some 73% of the winter oilseed rape harvest is complete and at this time last year just 21% had been harvested. This compares to the five-year average of 29% complete. Further south, a small area of winter wheat and spring barley has been cut but it is still early days to get any meaningful results.

Trial digs of early potatoes look as though yields will be good but only time will tell.

GB yield and quality

Early results from winter barley show yields varying from 5.3-8.5t/ha, averaging 6.2t/ha. This is down 12% on the UK five-year average and specific weights have varied between 59-72 kg/hl. Screenings are lower than normal and nitrogen content has ranged from 1.3-1.6%.

Oilseed rape yield has varied from 2.03-3.6t/ha and averaging 2.9t/ha which is down 10% on the UK five-year average while oil content is ranging between 43-46% and moisture averaging 8.3%.

EU 27 harvest update

The EU 27 countries have experienced some adverse weather in recent months and this has resulted in reduced yields for most areas, although not all. It has either been cold and wet or hot and dry. Maize, rapeseed and sunflowers are below their five-year average yield. However, spring barley has recently improved with most yields now estimated at 4.44t/ha, up from the five-year average of 4.08t/ha. Soft wheat has averaged 5.87t/ha and oilseed rape 3.10t/ha.

Large parts of Germany and France have experienced heavy rainfall all season which has led to more pests and disease plus delays in planting spring crops in Belgium and Luxembourg.

The long-range weather forecast is predicting warmer conditions in Europe with temperatures possibly rising above average during August and September, which will help countries like France and Germany but not Russia and Ukraine.

French farmers have been struggling badly with the weather and are forecast to have the lowest production of wheat in the last 40 years amounting to 26m tonnes, which is 9mt down on last year and the lowest since the 1980s and due to be the fourth wettest spring ever on record. It has been quoted that French farmers could face income losses of €1.5bn.

Moving on to Russia and Ukraine, there has been unusually hot weather, often above 35C combined with low rainfall which has resulted in lower yields. Russia has cut grain production to around 130mt of which the wheat total is around 83mt, and the result will depend on the weather which could damage spring maize crops.

Maize

Ukraine have cut their maize production down from last year’s 31mt to 24mt due to the hot, dry weather and, in the EU 27, maize yield is forecast to be down by 4% due to hot, dry weather especially in Hungary. Russia has lowered its potential maize production once again due to the hot, dry weather, down to 13.4mt.

The EU 27 maize production is forecast to reach 62.87mt which remains 3.7% below the five-year average and with poorer weather forecast this total is likely to reduce further.

However, maize crop conditions in the US are good with global ending stocks also projected to rise, which is not helping prices at this time. With the tight wheat production forecast in Europe, this could see more demand for maize for animal feed and volatility in maize prices.

Since March, here in the UK, maize usage for animal feed has been picking up due to its relative price against other cereals and for May usage was up 12% on the year.

The US winter wheat harvest is reported as 82% complete, which is ahead of previous years, and quality was rated before harvest at 77% good to excellent compared to only 49% last year.

Futures and cereal prices

With wheat harvest currently just beginning, feed wheat futures have eased back and until yields are known there will be little trading done.

Currently, November 2024 new crop wheat futures stand at £189.55 which is approximately £5.00/t down from two weeks ago while May 2025 futures are down £4.50 to £201/t.

Last week, feed wheat delivered into East Anglia for November delivery was quoted at £193.00/t and bread wheat delivered into north-west England for November was quoted at £273.50/t.

Feed barley is trading at a £23-£25.00/t discount to wheat which means that barley is being used for animal feed rations and this extra demand is keeping UK barley away from the export business.

The current price of barley means that the UK remains uncompetitive in comparison to other European countries, and it has been that way for several months now.

With a smaller barley planted area and lower yields, harvest pressure has been less than what has been experienced in previous

years and with the significant discount of harvest prices compared to those in October/November, this has resulted in farmers not currently selling barley but deciding to hold onto it until later in the year if they have the storage capacity to do so.

Oilseed rape and soyabeans

Global rapeseed supplies continue to tighten due to lower European yields and, in Canada, hot, dry weather is expected to significantly reduce yields there as well. Harvest has progressed faster here in the UK but again yields are lower than average. Rapeseed delivered to Erith for August delivery was quoted at £405.00/t and for November was £415.50/t, unchanged from the previous week.

In contrast to rapeseed, global soybean supply appears to be plentiful with possible record yields in the US where their crop was rated 67% good or excellent compared to 52% last year at this time. The US soyabean crop is forecast at 34.5m ha which is up 3% from last year and with a potential yield of 3.5t/ha, the US is expected to produce its second largest crop on record of 120.7mt.

Pulses

In the UK, the premium of new crop beans to wheat futures fell by £5/t last week due to the limited demand from UK feed compounders. Even with a price drop, UK beans are still uncompetitive in the export market with Russian and Ukraine-produced beans being sold up to £15/t cheaper.

Fertiliser

Globally there has been little movement in the price of urea last week but traders are checking on Chinese exports as their domestic production is 182,000 tonnes of urea per day.

Even with the recent warmer weather it has not reduced the UK gas price and prices remain high in Europe after a brief dip in July while ammonia prices have increased again to levels last seen in January.

The high values of both gas and ammonia are indicating a firm and tight ammonium nitrate European market as winter approaches which is when gas and ammonia prices increase.

Food security

We regularly hear comments and concerns over UK food security and the UK Food Security Index shows there is a broadly stable picture in terms of UK food security.

However, there are longer-term risks to food production from climate change.

The key conclusions are there is stable domestic production across all food, with productivity rising, and that imports come from a diverse range of sources to support stable food supply.