Concerns over future supplies of finished beef in the second half of 2024 are being superceded by the continued decline in the suckler herd, with increased numbers of cows and heifers entering the food chain instead of being retained for breeding.

With so much uncertainty in the industry coupled with ever increasing costs of production, more cows and heifers are being slaughtered. Add in the increased number of store cattle being bought out of Scottish markets to finish south of the Border, and the situation is being exacerbated, with huge variations in prices available for prime cattle sold ex-farm.

Iain Macdonald, market intelligence manager at Quality Meat Scotland said: “Concerningly, BCMS population data signals a renewed acceleration in the year-on-year decline of the beef breeding herd, with beef-sired females aged over 30 months on Scottish farms down 2.4% from April 2023.”

He highlighted that the decline in England and Wales continued to outpace Scotland, showing a year-on-year reduction of 3.2%, indicating ongoing competition for Scotland’s suckler-bred store cattle.

“Looking back over the past six years, the decline in beef-sired females in England and Wales has been significantly steeper than in Scotland, at 14.2% compared to 10.4% for those aged over 30 months. Consequently, it’s crucial to support Scottish finishers to enhance competitiveness and maximise the number of Scotch-eligible cattle remaining in Scotland.”

A further decline in Scotland’s beef herd this year means that a reduced 2024 calf crop follows a 2.7% fall in calf registrations in 2023, pointing to further tightening of store cattle availability in 2025 and continued pressure on prime cattle availability in 2026.

He added: “In addition to reduced economic activity from farming and processing, a declining beef herd will impact the output, gross value added, and jobs generated by their supply sectors, potentially leading to wider social impacts.

“To counteract these trends, modelling indicates that taking action in Scotland to stabilise the beef herd, boost productivity, and reduce the outflow of store cattle could shift the economic narrative from contraction to growth by 2030."

He added that given similar downward trends in beef production south of the Border, UK food security would be hit.

"With beef demand holding steady amid the cost-of-living crisis and the UK population projected to grow, a widening gap between domestic production and beef consumption by 2030 could require higher imports, sourced from regions with varying standards of production, which are also facing increased drought stress due to climate change.”

The disruption is already affecting trade with producers in the North of England receiving a 6p per deadweight kg premium for R4L steers and heifers over Scottish cattle.

Latest figures show steers hitting ‘spec in Scotland averaged 489.3p, while their R4L-graded counterparts in the North of England levelled at 496.8p. Scottish heifers are valued at 491.6p against 496.7p.

Cows are also selling for more in the North of England with an R4L making 409.2p, against 406.4p in Scotland, while young bulls are on a par at 478-479p.