Weather

Now that the combines are cutting the first of the winter barley here in the Borders, farmers will be looking for a settled spell of weather and the forecast is for more dry weather and average temperatures for this time of the year for the next week or so.

We have had some wet spells over the past few weeks, but crops have ripened as we also have had some warm sunny days as well.

At least here in the UK we do not have the La Nina weather that other parts of the world experience on a regular basis. Weather forecasters are predicting a 65% chance of La Nina weather developing during July to September and an 85% chance during November to January.

A La Nina event happens when the South Pacific temperature drops more than 0.5°C below normal and the cooler the temperature, the more severe the event. This can lead to major changes in global weather patterns affecting grain and oilseed production which, in turn, causes volatility in prices.

In South America, a La Nina event in late 2024 or early 2025 could cause prices to rise as rain will be scarce coupled with very high temperatures which will stress crops and reduce yields.

Historically, in Australia, a La Nina event causes higher rainfall which can support yields but can also cause flooding which would affect their rapeseed crop at harvest time – especially as their rapeseed area is lower this year and could lead to a tighter global supply.

In the southern US, La Nina causes drier conditions which would affect the start to their 2025 wheat crop in the autumn. However, it would bring cooler and wetter conditions to Midwestern US which would benefit 2024 maize and soybean crops this summer.

2024 harvest

Winter barley harvest is now well through in France, and their wheat harvest as of mid-July was 14% complete but is well behind the average of 43% for this time of year. Their wheat crop earlier this month had been estimated at 58% good to excellent, which is the lowest rating since 2020 and well below the 81% rating last year.

Rain and cool conditions continue to harm crop potential and their wheat crop production has now been estimated at just under 30mt. France is traditionally the EU’s primary wheat producer and exporter, and in 2023, produced 35.1mt. This year’s crop will be the lowest for four years.

The UK wheat area has now been revised upwards recently by the AHDB to 1.56m ha but the yield potential has not been helped by cool and wet conditions across the country. A wheat crop of 11.5mt is now thought likely to be produced in 2024.

These figures, however, are being disputed by analysts as some see the UK crop nearer to 10.45mt, which would be 3.53mt down on last year, and there is already a strong import programme in place to meet the consumer demand.

US 2024 wheat production looks set to be the largest for five years as their winter wheat harvest progresses well and is now 71% complete, well ahead of last year when it was 53% at this time.

They are looking at a 51mt wheat crop, which if realised will be the biggest since 2019. Their spring wheat crop is rated at 77% good to excellent, which compares to their 51% rating last year.

The USDA has increased the 2024-25 global wheat production by 7.9mt up to 801.0mt, partly due to an increase of 3.6mt from the US with Canada and Pakistan also having increased production.

Consumption was increased by 1.9mt on previous estimates to 800mt, leaving world stocks up 5mt to a total of 257mt, but the total will still be down by almost 5mt on last year.

Hot and dry conditions as high as 41°C are causing issues, especially for late drilled crops in Ukraine which could see yields drop by a further 20-30% in central and southern regions. But Ukraine still expects grain and oilseed exports to match last year’s figure of around 60mt.

Russia is looking at a wheat crop of around 83.2mt which is slightly up on previous figures due to better weather over the past few weeks.

In Western Europe, harvesting is progressing slowly due to wet conditions with reports that just 4% of their soft wheat area has been harvested by mid-July compared to 26% at the same time last year, and the five-year average of 19%.

Wheat prices

UK wheat prices eased as harvest has started with the USDA predicting higher wheat production for the 2024-25 season. UK wheat futures for November 2024 dropped to a three-month low last week, closing at £191/t, and new crop May 2025 closed at £201/t. November 2024 futures have now recovered to £196.35/t, and May 2025 stands at £205.50/t.

Last week, feed wheat delivered in the south of England was quoted at £194.50/t, which was down £3 from the previous week, and bread wheat was also down by £3 to £271.50/t.

Bread premiums remain firm as we wait for the wheat harvest to start. The UK is reliant on milling quality wheat coming in from countries such as France and Germany, and last year heavy rain through July and into August reduced both yields and quality in these countries.

This caused higher price premiums for bread wheat and malting barley during the 2023-24 season, both in Europe and the UK. If this happens again this year, this will support prices for both milling and malting premiums for the coming 2024-25 season.

Maize

The hot and dry conditions in Ukraine have seen their maize yields drop by up to 35% which has helped support prices, but if rain does not come soon then their late drilled crop yields could drop by a further 30%. In the US, maize prices have come under pressure as crop rating has risen to 68% good to excellent compared to 55% last year. The US maize crop is forecast to be 377mt this year with a planted area of 90m acres.

Barley

Spring barley harvest has started in France and is 20% complete. France and the EU have a larger spring barley area for harvest 2024 so there should be enough production to satisfy the quality malting barley market.

Winter barley yields and quality so far in Germany and France are said to be disappointing, which is due to the persistent wet weather, and estimates are that in France, production will be down by 15-20%. Screenings are higher than usual and bushel weights are lower than normal.

Winter barley cut so far in the Borders has been described as disappointing as well but with a lot of straw and the first of the straw lorries have been seen heading west.

Continuing uncertainty regarding this year’s barley harvest is helping to support prices while barley’s discount to wheat has narrowed from around £30/t down to £25/t but is still sufficient to make up a good proportion of animal feed rations.

UK barley prices remain strong in comparison to European and Baltic export barley, and this has resulted in the UK having very little to export this harvest.

Global barley production is expected to grow by 2.8mt year on year to 145.1mt which is far less than the 5.7mt forecast in June.

With demand expected to stay stronger than last year, stocks could fall later this season.

Oilseed rape

Oilseed rape prices have been supported by news of poor early oilseed harvests in the EU due to poor weather conditions.

Very hot weather and drought in eastern Europe, and heavy

rain and lack of sunlight in the West, has seen forecasters reducing potential yield down to 3.16t/ha.

For the 2023-24 marketing year, the EU Commission has reported that imports into the EU for the marketing year reached 5.68mt which is down 24% from the previous year, and exports were down 13% over the same period at 476,000t.

In Canada and Australia, canola crops look OK, but tonnage will not be available until the beginning of 2025.

Rapeseed delivered into Erith for August delivery was quoted at £393.50/t and for November at £404/t which was down £22.50 on the week.