Scottish industries are being urged to intensify their efforts to adapt to climate change, following research indicating that the frequency of water scarcity events in Scotland could double by 2050.

The James Hutton Institute led the study, examining climate change's impact on water availability for the farming and whisky sectors, which face increasing risk of water shortages.

The research found that in some areas, surface water scarcity events, where river levels drop significantly, could increase from once every five years to once every two years or more, potentially leading to stricter water usage restrictions.

Commissioned by Scotland’s Centre of Expertise for Waters (CREW) and conducted in collaboration with Scotland’s Rural College, the University of Aberdeen, and the British Geological Survey, the study highlights the urgent need for adjustment.

Dr. Miriam Glendell, co-leader of the research at the Hutton, stated: “We found that, for many, water scarcity is already an increasing issue. At critical times of the year, even short periods of water shortage could lead to vegetable and fruit crop failure.

“Some are already taking measures to adapt, particularly in the distilling sector, where technical advances could help reduce their need for water for cooling, but many could be at risk if they don’t take more action.

“Our work suggests more information would help them, about resources, but also adaptation strategies they can take, as well as help funding these and collaborating across catchments over resources."

The study predicts notably drier periods in April/May and late August/September, potentially affecting crop yields and livestock gains. Recommendations include adopting more efficient irrigation methods, avoiding high-water-demand crops, increasing water harvesting and storage during wetter months.

While using groundwater could help alleviate shortages, more data is needed to determine its viability. In some regions, summer groundwater levels have declined compared to previous decades, making areas with low groundwater storage and recharge particularly vulnerable to drought. To address this, the British Geological Survey and the University of Aberdeen developed a new framework to estimate groundwater resilience.

The report also recommends enhanced monitoring, better coordination of water resource usage across catchments, and the provision of adaptation advice and funding.

Dr. Kirsty Blackstock, another co-leader at the Hutton, noted: “Water scarcity is a clear risk to business resilience and once aware of these risks, participants were looking for solutions.

“But more information is needed on potential returns on investment and how the solutions can fit in with existing farm practices. Clarity on funding opportunities for these interventions in the new Agricultural Payments Tiers would also help them to adapt.”

The project team advocates for cross-sector coordination to prepare for future water extremes and highlights the importance of river catchment partnerships in managing water resources on a landscape scale.

For more information, the report titled ‘Future predictions of water scarcity in Scotland: Impacts to distilleries and agricultural abstractors’ is available at: www.crew.ac.uk/publication/water-scarcity-impacts-distilleries-agricultural