Wales' new post-Brexit farming scheme, the Sustainable Farming Scheme (SFS), risks reducing 122,000 livestock units, marking an 11% cut, according to an impact assessment carried out by the Welsh government.
The study, conducted by ADAS, Scotland's Rural College (SRUC), and the University of Dublin also predicts an 11% drop in labour on Welsh farms, based on current employment levels this figure is equal to losing 5,500 jobs.
This recent development also predictions a £125.3m blow to output from the sector and a £199m loss to farm business earnings equating to 85%.
In response to the figures, NFU Cymru expressed concern, with president Aled Jones stating that the impact assessment provides ‘damaging consequences’ for Welsh farming.
While acknowledging assumptions in the assessment, including 100% uptake of the scheme by Welsh farmers, Jones underlined the strength of the industry's concerns.
He added: “Even though this modelling relates to the 2022 proposals, given that the fundamental elements of the scheme have barely changed, the significant concerns held by the industry in relation to this impact assessment remain entirely valid."
Weaknesses in the report include the lack of concrete understanding for the wider effects on rural businesses and employment levels.
NFU Cymru and other industry bodies have previously been cautioned about the impacts of certain proposals within the scheme, including the 10% tree planting and habitat requirements.
Jones pressed the Welsh government to make underlying changes to the scheme to avoid the highlighted damage.
He emphasised the need for farmers to voice their concerns during the consultation period, which closes on March 7 for the Welsh government's SFS "Keep Farmers Farming" consultation.
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