Arable Matters: Fears for farming in Just Transition

But while we’re always being warned about the dangers of sowing too early, it has to be said that progress towards getting winter wheat in the ground has been slowed right down - and a decent weather window is going to be needed to get on with that job pretty soon.

Being forced to hop off the merry-go-round by the rain gave me a wee chance to reflect on wider issues – and I found myself realising that what we’ll be sowing (if the weather ever does decide to cooperate) is likely to be for the last harvest before the much anticipated yet still mysterious new farm policy begins to swing into action - bringing with it a sea-change in support measures and economic drivers for not just the arable sector but for the whole of Scottish agriculture.  

And that realisation has only drawn into sharp relief the continued lack of any hard information not only on what shape future policy will take but also on what it is we will actually be expected to deliver.

It’s probably beginning to sound a bit like a broken record from those commenting in the pages of the farming papers - but the lack of information is not only acting as a serious disincentive to many towards altering their practices or taking steps to prepare for the coming change but it also means that when they do eventually come, the changes will have to be made over a much shorter time period.(For let’s not forget that Scotland has committed to become a net zero greenhouse gas emitting nation by 2045 - with targets of 75% reduction by 2030 and 90% by 2040, against 1990 baseline levels).

So, while I was beginning to wonder if the whole thing was just a bit of a fabrication dreamt up by those wishing to sell farming papers, it almost came as a bit of a relief when this very message about the communications vacuum was hammered home to the Scottish Government last week.

And the Just Transition Commission – which the blurb describes as ‘an independent group set up by ScotGov to ensure that the journey to a net zero and climate-resilient economy is undertaken in a way that delivers fairness and tackles inequality and injustice’ – didn’t pull the punches in a report released last week which picked up on this very point.

And it was pretty blunt, accusing the powers that be of failing to provide sufficient information about the changes that we in the industry will need to make to address issues such as bringing down the industry’s carbon emissions.

The report, which has drawn very little attention from the media given its hard-hitting approach, warns that unless ‘difficult and honest conversations’ about the future of farming happen now there is a risk of slowing down Scotland’s progress and making it harder for unavoidable changes to happen in a fair way.

Well, while there’s still plenty of tidying up to do, I suppose we should be grateful that in most areas at least, the bulk of this year’s harvest has been gathered in before the onset of such dreich weather.

READ MORE: Unpredictable factors make for an uncertain season

But while we’re always being warned about the dangers of sowing too early, it has to be said that progress towards getting winter wheat in the ground has been slowed right down - and a decent weather window is going to be needed to get on with that job pretty soon.

Being forced to hop off the merry-go-round by the rain gave me a wee chance to reflect on wider issues – and I found myself realising that what we’ll be sowing (if the weather ever does decide to cooperate) is likely to be for the last harvest before the much anticipated yet still mysterious new farm policy begins to swing into action - bringing with it a sea-change in support measures and economic drivers for not just the arable sector but for the whole of Scottish agriculture.

And that realisation has only drawn into sharp relief the continued lack of any hard information not only on what shape future policy will take but also on what it is we will actually be expected to deliver.

READ MORE: Brian Henderson writes that this years harvest is looking green

It’s probably beginning to sound a bit like a broken record from those commenting in the pages of the farming papers - but the lack of information is not only acting as a serious disincentive to many towards altering their practices or taking steps to prepare for the coming change but it also means that when they do eventually come, the changes will have to be made over a much shorter time period. (For let’s not forget that Scotland has committed to become a net zero greenhouse gas emitting nation by 2045 - with targets of 75% reduction by 2030 and 90% by 2040, against 1990 baseline levels).

So, while I was beginning to wonder if the whole thing was just a bit of a fabrication dreamt up by those wishing to sell farming papers, it almost came as a bit of a relief when this very message about the communications vacuum was hammered home to the Scottish Government last week.

And the Just Transition Commission – which the blurb describes as ‘an independent group set up by ScotGov to ensure that the journey to a net zero and climate-resilient economy is undertaken in a way that delivers fairness and tackles inequality and injustice’ – didn’t pull the punches in a report released last week which picked up on this very point.

And it was pretty blunt, accusing the powers that be of failing to provide sufficient information about the changes that we in the industry will need to make to address issues such as bringing down the industry’s carbon emissions.

The report, which has drawn very little attention from the media given its hard-hitting approach, warns that unless ‘difficult and honest conversations’ about the future of farming happen now there is a risk of slowing down Scotland’s progress and making it harder for unavoidable changes to happen in a fair way.

READ MORE: Seeing RED over biofuel changes brought in by EU

“Misinformation and distrust around such things as the carbon inventory and audit methodologies pose a significant risk to greater understanding, buy-in, and operational change within the sector,” said the commission.

And it recognises that careful planning and sequencing of communications, supported by sufficient resources, will be required to mitigate this risk:

“In this sector working practices are frequently deeply tied to values, identities, and traditions formed over multiple generations, making reluctance and resistance to change very strong.”

The report calls on the Scottish Government to get its finger out and “define the landing zone” for farmers, workers, land managers, and rural communities to allow for long-term planning geared towards new, more sustainable business models.

“Effective communication and meaningful engagement on a just transition for this sector will not be possible unless the key elements of what contributing to the Scottish Government’s net zero and nature restoration commitments mean for this sector are honestly defined with far greater specificity.”

It warns that delaying these tough conversations is entirely negative and will only encourage the spread of misinformation and cause growers to build up resistance to necessary changes.

READ MORE: Everything you wanted to know ... but were afraid to ask

But, for me, perhaps the most worrying part of the report states that there is a particular risk where long-term uncertainty is allowed to persist regarding changes that “will make some of today’s livelihoods unviable, including some that are deeply culturally embedded.”

Now just stop - and take a moment and read that last quote lifted from the report again. And let it sink in.

Make no mistake, we’re not talking about some minor tinkering around the edges here. As has been made clear in other recent reports the new policy isn’t going to be about minimising disruption within the industry or not rocking the boat while trying to make sure that the number of winners and losers is minimised – it’s going to be about delivering the so-far unspecified outcomes.

The train that is speeding down the track towards us is going to be far bigger and moving far faster than we might think or hope.

Now the Just Transition Commission is made up of a wide range of experts from a number of fields – but it includes one of the most street (or perhaps I should say field)-savvy economists currently working in Scottish agriculture, the SRUC’s Steven Thomson.

“We know that agriculture and land use policies are evolving to account for Scotland’s climate change and biodiversity ambitions,” he said commenting on the content of the report.

He stated that land managers the length and breadth of the country will be affected by those policy changes over the next 5-10 years of transition:

“Not fully knowing what these changes look like is causing angst, and concerns about long-term business viability among farmers, crofters, and other land managers.

READ MORE: Making the most of acres at Arable Scotland event

“Better communication on the scope of expected changes is vital going forward. The sector will adapt, but in an industry with long production cycles all land managers need to be confident that the pathway they choose is the correct one and one that will be rewarded”

So, I wondered what response the mandarins at ScotGov have to what could only be described as a pretty powerful torpedo being aimed squarely at their hull - by an organisation that they had themselves set up?

And let’s just say that it certainly didn’t go any way towards revealing any of the cards which, despite all the rhetoric on world platforms, the administration is holding in what is increasingly looking like a losing hand – with one of the usual Scottish Government spokespersons telling me:

“Every year, the need to support action to address emerging climate issues for land use becomes more urgent, and we recognise the crucial role that Scotland’s farmers, crofters, and land managers have to play and are already playing.

“We are already helping them to cut emissions and farm with nature through our Agricultural Reform Programme. We have also announced changes to farm payments from 2025 that will help make farm businesses more efficient too.”

Or, following James Callaghan’s quote during the 1979 winter of discontent, they might as well have put it: “Communications vacuum? What communications vacuum?”