A report published by the Scottish Government has found the long-term impact of Brexit on the agriculture sector is deemed to be limited – but the short-term impacts are more pronounced on UK exports to the EU.
Written by independent analysts, the report finds relatively small differences in output under a baseline which incorporates Brexit, and a no-Brexit scenario.
The outlier to this is the loss of the EU and NI markets for Scottish seed potato exports is significant.
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The report argues the restoration of this market access is a key goal for the sector and should also be a primary objective for policy-makers.
However, the short-term impacts of Brexit are more pronounced on UK exports to the EU in comparison with imports in the opposite direction.
This is because the UK Border Operating Model for controlling imports will not become fully functional until the end of 2023.
Against this, UK exports to the EU have been subject to border controls and checks since January 2021 and the impact of regulatory controls on UK-EU trade has had a more substantial impact on small and micro enterprises.
The report adds that in numerous cases, these businesses have ceased trading with the EU and whilst overall trade might not be that affected, this trade is now in the hands of larger traders to a much greater extent.
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