Farming in the war zone in Ukraine – why we will prevail

An 'operation' from which we are now still suffering pain from 375 days later, with no realistic end in sight. This sent huge waves, not ripples, across the world – especially so in the landscape of global energy and food security, both of which impacted heavily upon farming.

Not least of its effect was in the high cost/high risk world of potato growing. With fertilisers and fuel costs spiralling, growers thought long and hard about minimising their burgeoning costs and what area they could afford to plant and risk.

Who would have thought a UK Therese Antoinette would exhort us to 'eat turnips.' An over abundance of Coffey, but no tomatoes or eggs in many retailers!

The lack of understanding and complacency over food supply chains is monumental, with government failing to support UK greenhouse growers. There is no shortage of fresh produce in Portugal or Spain, as I saw with my own eyes last week.

It's seems that Mark Spencer, too, is just an ordinary farming minister and not a M and S one. Will the Government fall over a turnip, just as Graham Taylor, the English football manager did in the past? MEPs, by contrast, are lobbying hard to help EU farmers with increased fertiliser costs.

Our 'permacrisis' continues, but this is nothing compared to the privations facing Ukrainians daily. As one of my colleagues, Yuriy, responded to me last week: "We have electricity and the temperature is above zero, so we are happy."

Their resolve, stoicism and motivation is the stuff of legend and incredibly humbling. Our first PickupsforPeace 4WD convoy leaves for Ukraine as I write. The generosity of the Scottish farming community is also humbling. Together we will prevail.

The weaponising of gas, grain and geography by Russia has destabilised the lives of billions and set a new global agenda. And, let's not forget, more than 70,000 Russian war crimes have been recorded and documented, plus two-thirds of a nation's children have had to flee their homes.

We have learnt three major lessons these last 12 months.

Firstly, how thin a veneer of civilisation really is in the 21st century.

Secondly, the increasing impact of global interconnectivity.

Finally, on a more positive note, the indomitability of the human spirit, whether farmer or soldier, or those providing aid and succour to refugees or the military effort.

Ukrainians are very much fighting for a maintenance of international order and the freedom from fear of all our grandchildren. I am old enough to recall the 'Protect and Survive' leaflet delivered to every household at the height of the nuclear threat of the Cold War. We do not want this for our descendants.

Politicians need to be more aware of the natural cycles of food production. No wheat planting in the autumn, no harvest next summer.

At this time last year, 6.6m ha of wheat was emerging from the winter and ready to perform. In 2023, only 4.4m ha of winter wheat has been drilled in Ukraine, due to war and a wet autumn sowing period. It is in poorer condition than last year.

From a grain harvest record of 103m tonnes in 2021, this dropped to 65m last harvest, partly due to higher input costs and poorer cashflow. The forecast harvest for 2023 is down significantly again to 45m tonnes.

Growing wheat in Ukraine was at a loss in 2022 due to higher input costs, coupled with well below world prices ($150-200/t less) and higher transport and storage costs. Oilseed rape was the only profitable winter crop last year and significant areas of maize remain uncut.

Around 17% of the land area of Ukraine is now 'neutralised' for agricultural use due to occupation, munition pollution or landmines. This is an area almost the same size as Ireland.

The legacy of current day munitions in the east will be a lengthy one. In the west of Ukraine, the situation is far better, but input costs, availability, cashflow and now increased labour shortages due to further mobilisation, all affect even there. Despite this, the resolve and stoicism within the farming community remains high.

The Scottish Government set up a Food Security Taskforce rapidly after hostilities began, embracing all stakeholders. They have now launched a food security plan and set up a Food Security Unit. An important move to protect.

I was privileged to address the Taskforce last week on the Ukrainian situation and left them in no doubt that the impact of lower sowings in Ukraine would continue to impact heavily on global food security. This security will be further impacted by higher fertiliser and other input costs than 2021, not only in Ukraine but worldwide.

Input costs are now moderating downwards slightly, but are still way higher than historical prices. Asian and African countries are major Ukrainian customers and political stability in huge importers, like Indonesia and Egypt, may well take a hit in 2023 as in the Arab Spring.

Ukraine exports 80% of its production, but even good harvest in Brazil will not recoup such losses. The FAO global food index is still 30% above 2020 levels in the first two months of 2023, down from 60% above at its peak in 2022.

Spring planting in Ukraine will start shortly and with no respite to war in sight, this will likely be down by around 30-40% at best. This will impact particularly on sunflower and maize.

We are committed to planting our potato crop and our starch factory hit a new record production level this week. The potato crop are important to Ukraine, normally producing around $4bn worth of value and the largest production in Europe ahead of France, Romania and Germany.

This is 18% of European production (and over 4% of world production) and Ukraine is the fifth largest producer of potatoes in the world, producing 20m tonnes per annum, similar to the US.

What is generally not appreciated is that more than 80% of this production is in the hands of smaller, non-professional growers, in small-scale, backyard plots for domestic consumption. How much of this area will be planted due to labour and seed shortages in 2023?

Last season, we donated high quality potato seed to aid smallholders. These subsistence crops increase disease and pest pressures for the 50,000 ha that are under full commercial production but feed many.

We started growing 90ha of potatoes in West Ukraine, near Lviv, 18 years ago, founding the Continental Farmers Group. Within a few years, we were Ukraine's largest commercial producer, with more than 2000ha of potatoes.

Key to this success was investment in new technology and genomics. Most of the smaller producers grew home-saved seed for many years, with obvious implications for yield and quality.

What I term the 'East European Leapfrog Effect' meant a swift move from poor quality seed and horse drawn manual planting, to superior seed quality genetics and GPS controlled planters. This paid quick dividends, tripling of yields in the famous fertile, stone free black soils which I had first learnt of as an undergraduate.

Help will be needed to aid the recovery of the Ukrainian agricultural industry when the war eventually ends. Indirect costs of damage to the industry have now hit $32bn and rising. Losses of storage have cost $1bn, with machinery losses double that.

Decades of Soviet 'command and control' collective farming had led to much soil damage and compaction when we arrived. Abandonment of land for over a decade had also led to a huge tumbledown weed burden.

Both were costly to remedy but paid dividends quickly. Remediation costs post war will be higher.

Low, state-adjudicated land rentals for high quality land and a willing and low cost, by European standards, workforce were our two most important competitive advantages. Rural unemployment was 90%.

We invested heavily in staff training and knowledge transfer, as well as supporting community projects. The positive effects of these investments and stewardship were manifold. It is sad to see this progress under threat, but we are determined to succeed and farming is fundamental to Ukraine's economy past, present and future.

It is not allowed to buy agricultural land and so our rental model, is still focused on production, rather than land appreciation. We invested in temperature controlled stores for processing crops.

Supportive contracts from our main crisping customer have been critical. Their valuable support during the last year is highly valued. This despite temporary closure of its Black Sea factory.

Having sold Continental Farmers, we set up our new venture Central Plains Group three years ago, integrating a new starch production factory for biodegradable plastic feedstock and food use. We are now Ukraine's second largest grower, after our old company.

It was a bold decision last spring to plant 900ha of potatoes not knowing who might harvest them. We planted in an act of faith and defiance in the face of Russian aggression which continues this season. Our excellent local team repaid that faith.

The effects of war are not the only factor putting our UK food security at risk. At the time when the self-inflicted deceitful wounds of the Northern Ireland Protocol are finally being addressed. our borders are at risk in other ways.

Not too many plaudits are due to Sunak, who is only attempting to solve a NI problem his own party and predecessor created. Good news for seed potato growers, but export paperwork and bureaucracy remain for sales to EU.

There are currently no import safety checks on food imported into the UK from the EU via Rotterdam. As Prof Chris Elliott has pointed out, this puts the UK at severe risk from food safety scandals or even another maskapony pizza scandal with horsemeat. It is to be hoped that with current disarray at the head of the SNP, balls are not dropped in Agricultural Reform in Scotland.

Meanwhile, the prospects of us meeting the immensely expensive Net Zero commitment were dealt another blow, as predicted, with the distressed sale of Britishvolt this week. Purchased by an Aussie startup speculator, the company mission will now veer away from the Johnson vaunted EV battery manufacturer to military and other battery uses.

This month it was reported that EV sales had dropped 83% following removal of consumer subsidies in Germany – rather like the windfarms that claim to power them.

It was good to attend the AHDB Agronomy Roadshow in person after an absence of in person meetings due to Covid. Two highlights were the journey of McGregor Farms in utilising the best technology with inspirational drive, efficiency and passion to excel in the Borders.

Another story of efficiency was related by Ian Bingham, of SRUC, who has shown that expensive foliar N sprays are no more efficient than soil applied bag N. This, despite the misguided hype surrounding them this last year.

It's oft said that a fool and his money are soon parted and here is another example. You can't defeat the laws of chemistry, physics and biology, as often stated in this column, with unfounded marketing hype.

The disruption of the annual cycle of food production here in Ukraine will continue to impact globally, not least on the poorest. Our faith in the indomitability of our Ukrainian farming colleagues and the good soils of Ukraine remain steadfast. They will both remain long after this bloody war is ended.

In days of yore, there were businesses who would hire out a rare pineapple to act as a table centrepiece to impress your diners. At the end of the dinner party it would be returned untouched for the next dinner rental.

I never thought I would see the day when the same might happen to a tomato, or even a bottle of ketchup. Impressive to rent, but too expensive and rare to consume!

Interesting to hear PM Sunak passionately extolling the immense virtues for Northern Ireland of having access to both UK and EU markets. Remind me when last Scotland enjoyed such a benefit?

At least if the Windsor Agreement is ratified, vegetables and fruit unavailable on mainland UK will also be unavailable in Northern Ireland, too. A growing cross border tomato smuggling industry ... yet another Brexit benefit?