Record prices and record costs – the agronomic year that was 2022

While at times it has felt like the Four Horseman were just over the horizon as war returned to Europe, the weather has been remarkably kind to us in the last year. An ideal autumn drilling may have had a sting in the tail with a very wet October, but the majority of winter crop were already well established by then.

Winter in 2021/22, or rather the lack of it, followed the trend of recent years. Spring drilling was for most a pleasure – though those few of us with open machinery could again have done with being a little warmer, or so the trials team told me.

The spraying season was tricky, but far from impossible. The weather data does not show the full story, however.

While rainfall and its frequency were not nearly the worst on record, the combination of damp and windy days made spray opportunities few and far between for much of May and early June. High levels of leaf wetness along with mild conditions had a direct effect on the disease challenges that we would face later in the season.

Thankfully, the summer was spectacular. Blue skies and record temperatures meant another early start and finish to harvest.

The pressure was intense for all involved, but yields on the whole were rewarding and drying costs mercifully low. Our combines left the fields on August 28, two days earlier than our previous best, achieved way back in 2003.

Good harvests in the last two years feel a little like busses – you wait a lifetime for one to turn up, then miraculously two come along in quick succession!

Also, 2022 proved to be a season of change, challenge and opportunity with record prices travelling hand-in-hand with record costs. Volatility was the order of the day, with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine causing commodity prices to reach new heights of unpredictability.

Most businesses had to accept a greater degree of risk as the cost of taking a crop to harvest increased well beyond the published inflation figures, which themselves are now at levels not seen since the dark economic days of the early 1980s.

While it was welcome to see grain prices cross the previously impenetrable £300 per tonne barrier, before falling back, the inflation and volatility in fertiliser prices to a peak beyond £900 per tonne have been causing a fundamental rethink in how we drive yield and profitability.

Alternative nutrient sources, the use of cover crops, green manures and cropping decisions based on true yield potential have all now to be part of the decision-making process. While not all the easiest subjects to cover from a small plot trials perspective, this year sees the beginning of a pivot in Scottish Agronomy’s trialling activities.

Within this year’s trials results we have introduced important nitrogen trials on winter wheat and spring barley. This work will be expanded in the future, along with a greater examination of all the options available for efficient crop production, testing product claims to ensure that grower’s decisions are science-based.

While our trialling programme is second to none in its ability to identify new varieties and the most productive chemistry, we will look to expand on-farm comparisons to examine the increasingly important effects that rotations, cultivations, alternative nutrient sources and cover crops play on our journey towards 'Net Zero'. The challenge will be generating statistically robust data to the same standard as the current small plot trials.

Within this year’s trials results, there have been many significant results. The aforementioned weather conditions led to the highest septoria pressure that I have ever experienced in wheat.

It was alarming at the end of June to see fungicide programmes costing £200-plus per ha struggle to control disease. Only the change to drier weather and the exceptionally early harvest avoided seriously detrimental yield losses having a major effect on crop returns.

Septoria infection started much earlier in the year than we had seen for some time. However, the major factor was the breakdown in the 'Cougar resistance' that has dominated soft wheat breeding in recent years.

While showing its hand in last year’s trials, this resistance fell off a cliff in Scotland this year. The vast majority of the wheats that were grown had deteriorated significantly in their resistance, which had certainly not been helped by the preponderance of early drilling.

The result is that we are now faced with a situation where growing the current soft wheat options, such as the ever popular Skyscraper, can present a risk that may not always be rewarded. The current hard wheat portfolio, such as SY Insitor, while having limited marketing opportunities, at least offered a degree of septoria resistance that allowed a potential reduction in fungicide spend.

Anyone who visited our trials sites at the end of June will have seen with their own eyes what this meant in practice. The reality will be further challenges to breeders to fast-track more resistant soft types to market and the need for the end-user to recognise the additional cost and risk incurred in growing the current soft wheat options.

As far as wheat chemistry is concerned, this produced one of the major talking points of the year. The issues on farm with the Corteva Inatreq-based chemistry, as used in Univoq, had been well publicised.

While the experience within the Scottish Agronomy membership is that the problems have been far from universal, those afflicted faced the prospect of being without their sprayers at a critical time of year.

However, if you were to study this year’s trials results, you would conclude that Univoq had been the outstanding septoria fungicide this year in our trials. The simple truth is the effective fungicide cupboard is so bare that we will have to use all the tools available, including Univoq.

Since the loss of chlorothalonil (as in Bravo) and epoxiconazole (Opus), the remaining available actives, are being required to do more heavy-lifting and in a year like 2022, with the slippage in soft wheat genetic resistance, we are faced with a grim reality that we do not have the tools to control septoria in all varieties in all years.

Yes, we have other strong options, such as Revystar from BASF, and forthcoming additions from Syngenta and Bayer, but we are going to have to use all the products available to have any hope of success.

Corteva recently published updated advice on how to minimise the risk involved in using its product, which is available on their website. For some growers, the risk may be too great and they may well remove Inatreq-based chemistry from their plans. If this is the case, then it is essential that their future wheat variety choice takes this into account.

On a more optimistic note, while wheat faces many challenges, the trials results demonstrated success with barley as breeders continued to bring forward new and exciting varieties. The winter barley options are particularly strong and while the spring crop is currently dominated by the success of Laureate, it is good to see new challengers offering yield and agronomic advantages.

As always for spring barley, it will be the end-user and market acceptance that decides the future of these new lines. It is worth noting that the best spring barleys are now competitive with poorer winter wheat outputs. Well worth considering when looking at the costs and risks involved.

The resurgence in the winter oilseed rape crop continued to slowly gather pace with some useful new varieties coming forward. As always, the issues of clubroot, light leaf spot and establishment must be taken into account.

However, for those that persevered, oilseed rape often proved to be a very rewarding crop to grow in 2022. Also, oats again proved to be a valuable option. Winter rye and to a lesser extent triticale have again shown a potential future path involving lower inputs while retaining output.

While many have strong views on the latest buzz words, such as sustainability and regenerative agriculture, there is no doubt that the journey to Net Zero will lead to large-scale change in the way that we farm. We should not get distracted by labels and individual preferences, but should instead look at the contribution that change can make to all our businesses.

Systems that retain fertility within the rotation are to be applauded when compared with the cost implications of bought-in fertility. Appropriate pesticide usage will be essential as the next generation of more environmentally-aware consumers come to dominate.

Adaption will be challenging but will provide opportunity and we will ensure that Scottish Agronomy remain at the forefront of Scottish agriculture. With this in mind, I wish you all the very best for the season ahead.

* Adam Christie is managing director of Scottish Agronomy, a farmer-owned co-operative offering leading, independent agronomy advice based on the findings from its 20,000-plus trials plots in Scotland and over 35 years of experience in the field. For more about membership or for a 30-day free trial, see www.scottishagronomy.co.uk.