Thousands of farmers stand to see their subsidy payments rocket or tumble depending on how the Scottish Government pays out direct support from 2025.

From a briefing to the Agriculture Reform Implementation Oversight Board (ARIOB) obtained by The Scottish Farmer, it is apparent that millions of pounds of agri-support will be moved between businesses depending upon which of the five different models currently being considered becomes final policy.

The briefing shows a static budget of £405million for the country's 3.8 million claimed hectares. However many farmers may only see half their current payment rates as the Scottish Government’s Agricultural consultation states that 50% of the direct support will be conditional on farmers being effective in reducing emissions and helping nature.

Read more: Scottish Government pays out nearly £330m in farm payments

This may put a full payment out of reach of many businesses who fail to achieve the enhanced requirements – therefore the rates offered in the modelling may end up being more than double what many farmers actually get paid.

The most explosive of the five options suggests basing Scottish agri-support on a single region, which would see £305m of the budget redistributed with 67% of businesses worse off. A single region would deliver a flat rate of £105/h which is a sharp drop for region one farmers from the £211/h current payment, but a big rise for region two and three who are £42/h and £12/h respectively.

This option would be simple to administer but would see massive amounts of money head to extensive hill units, although capping or front-loading payments could help reduced redistribution. Further consideration needs to be made for budget allocations to fund other rural payment schemes such as agri-environment, conditional enhanced payments and elective payments, so the figure of £105/h could be considerably less.

NFU Scotland’s favoured option is to pay on actively farmed hectares. Under the current budget this would result in £120m of redistribution and would see £15/h added to all payments as less active hectares were knocked out. Grazing land would be scaled back on claims until all the area was stocked at the equivalent of 0.8 livestock units which is equivalent to a single beef cow.

The Outer Hebrides were identified as an area which would lose out considerably if 'actively farmed hectares' were the chosen basis. Under this model activated hectares which were eligible would get a combined base and enhanced payment rate of £236/h if the existing budget was rolled over.

The third option on the ARIOB table was the radical suggestion that farm subsidy payments be based on standard labour requirements. This could focus support on sectors which require more hours of labour such as pigs, poultry and dairy. Under the current budget, that would deliver a combined enhanced and base payment of £8259 for a full-time labour requirement.

The fourth option looked at was merging regions two and three, which would also see money moving to more extensive hill units, with balancing measures under discussion including increased capping and enhanced payments for the first set number of hectares.

Under current budget allocations, this option would half the region two payment rate and near double the region three, with a combined base and enhanced rate of £24/h. Under this it would likely mean the end of the Scottish Upland Sheep Support Scheme (SUSSS), and if this cash was added to the pot, the rate would rise by £3/h.

There were other options also discussed, which would split grassland and permanent pasture land and set different conditions for arable, grassland and rough grazing land payments.

Depending on which option the Scottish Government chooses, there may also be a transition period of a number of years to allow businesses to adjust to the change in support level. There would also need to be decision made on the future of LFASS or a successor scheme, which is currently not part of direct payments but is included in tier four under 'complimentary support'.

A Scottish Government spokesperson said: “The issue of regionalisation is under consideration and our approach will be announced next month.”