WITH some farmers leaving Ukraine and farm staff fighting for their country there are fears the Russian invasion will significantly hurt this year’s Ukrainian harvest.

Known as the breadbasket of Europe, Ukraine produces 12% of global wheat exports, 16% of corn and 18% of barley exports.

As Russian troops advance to most areas of the country, farmers are unsure if they can start seeding spring crops in March to get this year’s harvest under way.

There are many foreign owned and managed farms in Ukraine, but some of them have chosen to leave the country to wait and see how the illegal occupation by Russian president Putin will develop.

The invasion is already causing huge problems for Ukrainian agriculture. While tanks instead of tractors roam the fields, prices of seeds, fertiliser and chemicals have escalated and getting bank loans to buy them is a huge challenge.

However, there is some progress as farmers in western Ukraine have started the fieldwork, while monitoring the situation in other parts of the country.

Mike Lee, a director with Green Square Agro Consulting that specialises in agricultural projects in Russia and Ukraine, said: “Ukraine's wheat crop is nearly all planted in the autumn and currently stands at 6.5 million hectares. Spring wheat is planted from now through March and was forecasted to be around 175,000 hectares bringing the total wheat area to 6.7 million hectares.

“If the situation on the ground escalated to a position that farmers could not apply fertilisers or pesticides and assuming they could harvest it in July, there would still be a wheat crop, probably down to around 16 to 17 million tonnes. This compares with 26 to 27 million tonnes we currently forecast if farmers are unencumbered to manage their crops.

“Ukraine requires around ten million tonnes of wheat for domestic consumption," noted Mr Lee. "Depending on the scenario, that will leave between six and 17 million tonnes available for export through the 2022-23 marketing year from June to July.”

Looking at the situation with corn, Mr Lee said it was typically planted through April and May: “Most farmers will have seed purchased, and it should be on farm. A lot of fertiliser is imported from Russia but earlier this month Russia introduced a temporary ban on ammonium nitrate exports from February 2 to April 1, 2022. This was probably more about high fertiliser prices and Russian protectionism than forward thinking, although ammonium nitrate is a very effective explosive.

“The current unencumbered forecast is 37 million tonnes from 5.5 million hectares. With domestic consumption about seven million tonnes this leaves 30 million tonnes for export through the 2022-2023 marketing year. This could drop to zero if farmers cannot plant the crop, but a middle ground would be fewer hectares and lower yield from fewer inputs giving a possible crop of 19 million tonnes, with exports down to 12 million tonnes.”

Read more: To All Ukrainian Farmers

Another big issue with exports will be the shipping routes. Russia controls ports in the Azov Sea by controlling access through the Kerch Strait. The Azov is a shallow sea limiting shipping to shallow drafts, often transferred to larger shipping in deeper water. Most grain exports originate further west through the Black Sea ports from Kherson, Mykolaiv and Chornomorsk, and the deep water berths at Yuzhniy and Odessa.

Mr Lee added: “There has been talk of closing the Bosphorus to shipping to restrict the Russian navy or Russian trade, which leaves a couple of things to consider. A lot of Black Sea wheat goes to north Africa and the Middle East who rely on regular shipments to keep bread prices low. Presumably, these regions would kick back hard against any blockage. Plus, as grain prices go through the roof, which they are already starting to do, the commercial pressure to ship grain will be tremendous. Having said that, insurance and risk tolerance of ship owners willing to enter ports in a war zone is more likely to affect exports,” he said.

While farmers in Ukraine would like to take advantage of current high prices and sell wheat and corn, shipping it to customers is not going to be easy. Iurii Mykhailov, former President of the Union of Agricultural Journalists of Ukraine, is based in central Kyiv. He said: “CMA CGM Group has decided to suspend all vessel calls to Ukraine from February 24 until further notice. The same decision was made by Maersk. The company cancelled all ship calls and closed its office in Ukraine.

“The global agricultural commodity trader Cargill Inc said the ocean-going vessel it had chartered was hit by a shell in the Black Sea, but the vessel retained its seaworthiness and the crew remained safe. Egypt's state grain buyer has cancelled an international procurement tender for wheat. Egypt has not received offers of either Russian or Ukrainian wheat.

“Also, the global agricultural commodity trader Bunge Ltd said it closed the company's offices in Ukraine and suspended operations at the port of Mykolaiv. The Bunge's competitor Archer-Daniels Midland Co (ADM) said its facilities in Ukraine, including a terminal in Odessa, are not operating.”