The shocking news that a dozen dairies have been dropped by Lactalis has sent ripples through the milk sector. Little did these families know that the letters they picked up last week would contain messages that would dramatically change their lives forever.

Speaking to the affected farmers, they claim there was no prior warning or suggestion that they could be dropped. Further, it remains unclear why these farms were selected, and at what stage, if any, the Milk Suppliers Association was warned. Granted, this is a private matter between commercial entities, but for years the sector has called for transparency. Now seems an ideal time to explain the process that led us to this point.

Persistent questions need to be addressed—Have some herds been allowed to increase in size while others are shown the door? Can individual farms receive a bespoke report on why they were dropped, as opposed to generalisations?

The trend towards fewer but larger farms has been ongoing for a century, but it doesn’t need to be a headlong rush. Traditionally, the milk price dictated the pace of farms exiting the sector. Recently, however, processors dropping farms or imposing large collection fees have sped up the process.

Just a few years ago, dairy farms in Aberdeenshire were all but wiped out due to contractual changes in milk hauling for processing in the central belt. If contracts with prices comparable to those offered to farmers in the southwest were available in Aberdeenshire, beef farmers would likely be queuing up to switch to black-and-white cattle.

Across the water in Ireland, their dairy sector thrives on family farms with an average herd sized of 100 cows and very few over 300 cows. This is underpinned by low debt, family labour, co-op loyalty, and an ‘export or die’ mentality. A family farm on 200 acres with a robotic milker can function successfully in this environment.

Ireland has 17,000 dairy farms, with fewer than 1,500 part-time farmers, while we in Scotland are heading towards just 700 dairy herds. Granted, Ireland has increased levels of government support, but when compared against a dairy farm’s turnover, the advantage is more modest.

Even in the US, where market forces dominate, many smaller dairy farms, like those in Wisconsin, continue to thrive with many herds numbering fewer than 100 cows, as highlighted in a recent article in The Scottish Farmer.

We can’t turn back the clock, and every country is unique. The market has evolved beyond what a reinstated milk marketing board could regulate. However, there is a sense that Scotland has rushed into scaling up farms faster than other regions.

This isn’t a criticism of the successful farmers running large-scale operations—through skill and risk-taking, they have modern businesses feeding thousands of people every day. Scaling up is often the best way to secure their families’ future and pass on a viable enterprise to the next generation.

You can also understand the processors, who are looking to secure retail, wholesale, and export contracts where price matters. Cutting down on transport costs and enjoying the benefits of a more concentrated supply certainly gives them a competitive edge.

But all of this is cold comfort to the 12 families now faced with the task of finding a new buyer for their milk. Some may decide to throw in the towel, while others might strike it lucky and secure a new contract. However, with an established waiting list of farms hoping to start up a dairy, it won’t be easy to jump the queue.

While we wait for answers, let’s hope the only thing that curdles is the milk, not the trust in the system.