We told you so

While it might be a bit school-kiddish to say 'we told you so', the figures revealed in the NFU Scotland 'Intentions Survey' of a fairly significant contraction of the national beef herd in Scotland, is worrying on a few levels – not the least of which is a loss of critical mass at many levels.

Many in the industry have been pointing out for some time – and none more so than The Scottish Farmer's columnists, Jim Brown and Jim Walker – that this worrying trend will have serious consequences. This survey adds some very big slices of meat to many anecdotal references.

Also, with cattle disappearing south of the Border to be killed, then Scotland's killing trade should be worried and it's hard to see that someone will not come out of all of this badly. From a farming perspective, it's not been an unreasonable response to put away cows due to record-breaking cull cow prices, as well as the industry being conservative in the face of so much uncertainty about what the Ag Bill will deliver to it.

So, it begs the question about whether – as some have alluded to in the recent past – that this is all part of 'The Big Plan' to denude Scotland of cow numbers so that it fits neatly in with Net Zero plans, with zero risk of the government standing accused of introducing policies that slash numbers. On the contrary, it is managing to do so by doing nothing!

The fact remains, though, that cattle herds remain the mainstay of many rural area's socio-economic infrastructure, while sheep numbers – which have been increased, according to the survey – will have little impact on this.

So maybe it's time to take a holistic view of all of this and factor in how it will actually affect 'people'. It cannot be argued that those living in rural areas are suffering breathing problems because of methane – unlike their distant cousins living in densely populated towns and cities. At some time, this must be considered in the round.

Milk worries

Just when dairy farmers thought they were on a fairly even road to recovery. comes the news (see page 3) that global trading in milk is pegging back at a fair rate of knots.

This is not good news for those contemplating the end of their electricity contracts, which seem to be rising even though the price of other fuels has been reducing somewhat. The warning is that a spring flush will push milk buyers over the edge in terms of having too much supply and that further price reductions – some are even quoted as saying that by summer the milk price might have to start with a '2' – will be a given.

Therefore – and it's not an easy one to contemplate – why not put the lid on the so-called spring flush by managing outputs? We might even end up with, as Jim Brown has often said, less milk for more money!