Lamb prices have been trading at their lowest levels of the season-to-date in the second half of October, and continue to fall week on week.

According to AHDB, UK deadweight lamb prices dropped by 3.8p/kg on the week to average 523.3p/kg for the week ending 26 October, with prices down a whopping 13.7p/kg on the same week last year.

It is a similar story among the live markets, with values having tumbled by 17.34p/kg on the year to cash in at 220.11p/kg for the same week, witnessing a 5.3p drop on the week.

“It is not unusual for lamb prices to fall back in the autumn and it is possible that the seasonal low point has been delayed this year by a slower marketing profile, with lambs taking longer to finish following the dry summer,” said Iain Macdonald, market intelligence manager at QMS.

“In recent weeks, we have seen auction numbers running at their highest of the season so far and overtake 2021 levels. On the demand side, lamb is, on average, an expensive protein and retail sales data from Kantar suggests that lamb sales have come under pressure as household spending patterns change in response to a rising cost of living,” he added.

Archie Hamilton, head sheep auctioneer at Lawrie and Symington, experienced a similar drop, with 4111 lambs cashing in at 217p per kg at Monday’s prime sale.

“The oversupply of lambs and the cost of production is having a real knock-on effect to the price of lambs,” said Archie Hamilton, who pointed out that lambs are back 30p per kg on the same week last year.

“Abattoirs are faced with a huge rise in costs to kill the lambs and don’t want to pass it onto the consumer, which is resulting in the slaughter volume being reduced. The demand for exports has dropped and the £ is not as weak as the media are making it out to be, as if it was exports would be a lot easier.

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“More and more farmers are, or have been selling lambs that bit earlier this year to avoid feed bills through the winter. They want lambs off of farm as soon as possible, resulting in an oversupply for this time of year.

“The same story occurs with the ewe trade. Good sorts are a good trade, but the smaller plainer ones are not making any money, ewes will be back £10 on the year. I am hopeful that the trade will come right again for the run up to Christmas, it has to,” added Archie.

Further north, Colin Slessor, deputy head of livestock at Aberdeen and Northern Marts, agreed that lamb prices have been tumbling.

“Lambs are struggling. We will be around 40p per kg back on this time last year, bearing in mind this time last year we jumped 15p weekly and it was rising nicely week on week. This year is a different story, it is hardening, and it is concerning, we would like to see it firming up a wee bit.

“The under finished lambs are creeping onto the market that little bit earlier due to farmers not wanting to pay feed bills. Come early next year, I believe they would be well rewarded for getting that touch of feeding required. Leaner lambs are driving the overall lamb average down,” he said.

Overall, the export side, trade is very difficult to predict at the moment, with too many factors to consider, but the main story is about how much money consumers have to spend on products and that’s going to have the biggest influence on demand at a crucial time for farmers.