Despite higher throughputs in Ireland and a price differential of 97.1p per deadweight kg; beef cattle values in Scotland remain at record levels with no signs of abating.

With production well underway for Christmas, latest figures show All steer and heifer prices in Scotland again up on the previous week by 1.7p and 1.6p per dwkg to average 528.6p and 528.0p, respectively.

Scottish steers and heifers hitting the R4L ‘spec are averaging 531-532p, and with a shortage not only of forward stores but also suckler cows to produce finishing cattle, such high prices look set to remain well into the 2025.

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“High beef prices are here to stay when there are not the finishing cattle out there to bring down values,” Scott Ferrie, senior auctioneer and market manager at Darlington Auction Mart, told The Scottish Farmer.

“It’s all down to supply and demand and we’re seeing more Scottish cattle being sold down here because there is more competition for them and they make more money at the end of the day. I really can’t see things changing much when there are not the store cattle to finish in the chain and it’s frightening the number of cows being sold on a weekly basis.”

He added that Scottish cattle topped last week’s prime bull trade at Darlington where bulls sold to 336p per kg or £2685 per head. Similarly, Scottish entries led the clean cattle at 345p and £2183 for a 633kg Limousin steer, while a a 663kg Limousin heifer sold for £2366. Prime bulls averaged 282p or £1963 per head with steers and heifers cashing in at 307p and 336p, respectively.

Neil Shand, chief executive of the National Beef Association, also believes the current high beef prices will be maintained into the new year.

“Early indications are that the beef price should remain firm into January and the first quarter of 2025, when the numbers are not there,” he said, adding that the number of beef cows being sold off farm is of huge concern to the future of the farming industry and the processors.

“It’s a huge worry when breeding cattle values are not maintaining the same price as finished and in one small area of Perthshire alone, 1200 cows have been sold off this summer. Changes to the Beef Calf Scheme will also reduce the national herd size.”

However, looking further ahead, Mr Shand said the ramifications of this week’s Budget could hit hard on industry when the minimum wage and national insurance is increasing.

It was a point echoed by Oliver Shearman, auctioneer at Caledonian Marts, Stirling.

“Finished beef prices are getting dangerously high and everyone in the industry needs a bit of the cherry to keep it going,” said Mr Shearman.

He also believes that while prime cattle values are at record levels; with input costs remaining at high levels there is not a lot of available cash.

“Our store cattle and suckled calf trade on Monday was up on the year but it was not noticeably higher. Yes, some suckled calves were up £200 per head up on the year and stores would be £100-£120 more than the same time in 2023, but you can tell that there is not a lot of money about,” said Mr Shearman.

In Ireland, prime cattle values have been relatively stable over the past few weeks, with some minor increases.

According to figures from the Department of Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs (DAERA), the total beef kill for the week commencing October 14, was up 1.7% on the same period of 2023. This increase was driven by higher numbers of cows, up 10% on the same period of last year. Heifer kill numbers were up 4% for the year to date, whilst steers are back 1%. This available supply will put some downwards pressure on prices, although market commentary suggests an expectation for numbers to tighten over the coming weeks, particularly in the prime sector.

In Eire, Bord Bia is predicting a tightening in Irish prime cattle availability in the final quarter of 2024 and into next year. This is driven by both a long-term decline in cattle numbers, and firm export trade across both live exports and beef products. Forecasts suggest that numbers could remain tight throughout 2025.

Irish cattle population data from Department of Agriculture Food and the Marine (DAFM) shows a 1.7% year on year decline in the number of cattle for beef production aged 12-30m as at September 1, 2024 (includes dairy males, beef males and beef females). This was driven by a 5% reduction in the number of cattle for beef aged 12-18 months, compared to 2023, pointing towards a tighter supply in the short term.