More often than not, demand for red meat hits the buffers in January, but nothing could be further from the truth so far, with the first week of 2023 seeing several processors having to increase prices to source finished cattle.

As The Scottish Farmer went to press on Wednesday, Highland Meats, Saltcoats, had increased their base price for the week to 453p per deadweight kg, with the remainder of Scottish abattoirs expected to follow suit to a similar extent when there is a growing shortage of all types of cattle on a GB scale.

Latest figures from AHDB show steer, heifer, young bull and cull cow numbers processed were down anything from 2.6% to a massive 27.4% on the previous seven days for the week up to Christmas Eve – before any of festivities began.

Add in several holidays over the past two weeks when significantly fewer cattle would have been killed and it comes as no surprise that the abattoirs are having to cough up that bit more for beef cattle this week.

Cull cow slaughterings slipped the most up to Christmas with figures in Scotland and south of the Border, revealing supplies down 9.0% and 27.6%, respectively, while young bulls were in the red by as much as 14.5% and 23.6% respectively. On a GB scale, steer and heifer numbers were down 2.6% and 7.1%, respectively.

Read more:

Ironically, it is cow beef – which showed the biggest drop in supplies – that is consumed most at this time of year as consumers look to trade down following the over-indulgencies of the festive period and the appearance of credit card bills let alone invoices for heating and electricity.

“The cold weather in December ensured a strong retail demand for red meat which coupled with the news that there was to be a shortage of turkeys meant beef sales fared better,” said Neil Shand, chief executive of the National Beef Association.

“The problem the processors have now is most of the unproductive cows have been ‘hoovered up’ and they are having to look more to clean cattle to fill supermarket shelves.”

Despite repeated claims of the cost of living crisis, Mr Shand also believes the covid pandemic created more wealth in the middle classes of society, who are putting additional money in the sector, by eating better quality meat and foods at home.

Add in the reduction in feed and fertiliser prices and the fact that Kepak was paying 10p per kg deadweight more for finished cattle in England compared to finished cattle in Scotland for one week in December, and he said the future of the beef sector is looking more positive than it has been.

Demand for store cattle is also hitting the high notes, with United Auctions' sale at Stirling on Wednesday reckoned to be ‘off the clock’ with more buyers from south of the Border looking to take full lorryloads back to finishing units in Yorkshire and the Midlands.

Great Britain is however a miniscule market in comparison to the world stage. At the recent Gira Meat Club (GMC) conference which provided a unique outlook of global meat markets, combining short and mid-term forecasts, it was revealed that in 2022, Southern Asia and sub-Saharan African countries accounted for 50% of the world’s cattle population.

South America, amounted to 21%, with 9% in North America and just 5% in the EU and UK.

Latest News:

Looking to 2023, Gira is forecasting a contraction of cattle herds in most exporting countries with the main growth in herds likely to be seen in Australia as herds rebuild after the drought and in China where cattle numbers have been growing as a consequence of the African Swine Fever (ASF) downturn in pork production and a strong demand for milk and dairy products.

However, looking further ahead to 2027 Gira is predicting growth in world cattle populations with global beef consumption expected to increase by an additional 3.6m tonnes on 2022 levels with the biggest growth in Asia.