Increased production in South America coupled with a large turn over in supplies is curtailing soybean values which have seen a steady decline over the past year.

According to the latest reports, global soybean ending stocks for 2023/24 remain the second highest on record (behind 2018/19) despite a marginal cut to Brazilian production. However, this year's crop from Brazil and Argentina could become the third highest should the projected 2024/25 ending stocks be achieved.

While on average, analysts expected Brazil’s 2023/24 soyabean production estimate to fall to 151.8mt, the USDA only cut production by 1.0mt to 153.0mt. In comparison, the Brazilian food agency, Conab’s latest estimate in May was considerably lower at 147.7mt, although they are due to publish their June estimates this month.

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For Argentina, 2023/24 production was left unchanged on the month at 50.0mt, which closely aligns with the average analyst estimate and the latest Buenos Aires exchange estimate of 50.5mt. As a result, world ending stocks remain the second highest ever at 111.1mt.

For 2024/25, estimates remained relatively unchanged on the month. World ending stocks are forecast at 128.5 which, if achieved, would be the largest ending stocks on record. This is largely supported by Brazil’s projected record crop of 169.0mt.

According to figures from AHDB, July delivery prices for soyameal Brazilian (48%) ex-store Liverpool are quoted at £393 per tonne with hi-pro soya at £383.