Despite an increased ewe flock coupled with a record lambing in Australia, the potential increase in exports are expected to have limited impact on the UK market.
That was the good news story from AHDB which points out that Australia focuses its export efforts on other countries when lamb prices down under are much lower than in Europe and are expected remain low.
As it is, Australian lamb production is set to hit record high levels in 2024 – up 4% (21,500t) from 2023, to reach 621,000t. This is 20% higher than the 10-year average and marks the third year of record production.
Lamb slaughter is also predicted to grow by 1.2m head (5%), to 26.1m head for 2024, making it the largest slaughter year on record. However, lamb slaughter is predicted to fall but remain at historic highs, thanks to a large flock and improved productivity. Overall flock size is forecast to fall by 3% for 2024, following slight destocking towards the end of 2023, to 76.5m head.
READ MORE | New season lamb prices are up 26% on the year
Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that lamb slaughter for the first quarter of 2024 reached just under 7m head, up 32% year-on-year. Weekly slaughter exceeded the 500,000 head mark for the first time in March, with rates persisting at high levels since.
Farmgate prices remain pressured generally, due to current supplies on the market, although they have seen some improvements in recent weeks, with Meat & Livestock Australia reporting that strong demand for quality heavy lambs has provided some growth.
READ MORE | Lamb supplies are likely to remain relatively tight for 2024
Australia’s main export destinations are China, the USA, Malaysia and the Middle East. Their No 1 market, China imported 44,000t in the year to date (Jan-Mar 2024), up by 3600 tonnes from 2023. The USA took just under 27,000t in the year to date.
The UK, in comparison, sits 12th in Australia’s markets for the year to date, taking just 3500t in the first three months of the year. The figure is however 1400t (+65%) up from the same period in 2023 albeit, lower than volumes imported in 2022.
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