This season has been a difficult one and not just for Scotland. Seasonal movement of the Jet Stream in the Northern hemisphere and El Nino in the South have caused difficulties.
Certainly there is little sign of global warming here in Scotland with the coolest summer I can recall in more than 40 years. Recent rains have not helped harvest and septoria and leaf loss is rife.
In Brazil too there has been a very cool period after the earlier drought curtailed yields of both soya and second crop corn. Even wild pigs have damaged crops substantially on some farms I am involved in in Brazil, so both meteorological and biological threats have hit yields. Corn yields are significantly down there due to the El Nino cycle but prices are up after a desperate year last year.
In Paraguay the drought hit yields badly as they did in Mozambique with drought giving a huge hit and users scrabbling for meagre grain supplies. US wheat is also an area to watch as production estimates are revised.
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Here in Scotland, and also in England, the wet autumn limited drillings. Lower autumn sown areas, coupled with lower yield potential will hit total UK wheat production hard. This will create opportunities for cheaper corn to find a place in distillers shopping baskets.
Oilseed rape areas and yield potential has been hit even harder than wheat. The flip side of the coin is a significant increase in spring crops and despite poor weather so far well into July spring crops are looking well. This will put pressure again on malting barley prices.
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In Russia, under the scorching sun, in temperatures of 50oC, farmers in the Rostov region, Russia’s breadbasket, toil to salvage a harvest battered by heatwave, frosts and floods. I recall visiting Rostov in 2010 to look at farms there, another year of droughts when both Russia and Ukraine closed their borders to wheat exports, sparking the Arab Spring. The sunflower crops there used almost as much oil to combine as was harvested in thin sad crops with small heads.
Rostov accounted for around 11% of Russia’s total grain harvest last year and is one of the key regions that Russia’s agriculture ministry has said it is monitoring to make further adjustments to an already downgraded 2024 crop forecast.
Watch this space. As in 2010 Egypt, one of the world’s largest wheat importers, has seen food price inflation of over 30% largely driven by subsidised bread prices rising.
In Ukraine winter barley harvest is finished and yields have been excellent in the West but less so in the drier South and Central regions. This is a nation which is the globe’s largest barley exporter, as well as sunflower oil producer. Wheat yields have also been good so far, particularly in West Ukraine.
Our potatoes are growing strongly after welcome rains, but blight pressure is high, especially in some susceptible processing varieties.There are of course major reductions in planted areas due to the war, so overall production will be down, with almost 20% of the arable area denied to the drill through conflict and mines.
Let us not forget this month marks the 10th anniversary since terrorist Russia downed civilian airliner MH17, killing 298 people, 80 of whom were children. A harbinger of deaths and brutality to come. Signs are that Russian offensives have stalled with their casualties now topping an estimated 500,000 total and a 1000 a week since June and huge equipment and artillery losses.
It was good to see that one of the first things that Keir Starmer did was reaffirm and increase military and other support for Ukraine, allowing UK missiles to be used to hit targets inside Russia. As well as hitting hospitals in Kyiv, almost half the Ukrainian electricity generating capacity has been hit by Russian missiles, as valiant engineers work hard to remedy.
There are great concerns over what Trump and Vance will do if elected, this may be slightly less likely now that Biden has belatedly withdrawn and a Kamala comeback is showing.
One thing is sure from history, Russia cannot be trusted in negotiations. From the Budapest Convention of 1994, Russia has broken many treaties to address specific issues and conflicts and almost 400 international treaties since 2014. There is one conclusion to be drawn here, that no one can seriously use the words 'Russia' and 'negotiations' in the same phrase. Putin is a habitual liar who promised international leaders that he would not attack Ukraine days before his invasion in February 2022. Russia’s tactic has remained consistent in its many wars over the last three decades: kill, grab, lie, and deny. Why would anyone genuinely believe that Russia in 2024 is any different from the Russia that broke agreements in 1994, 1997, 1999, 2008, 2014, 2015, and 2022?
Meanwhile our fundraising efforts for PickupsforPeace continue and our August convoy will bring up the 400th aid filled vehicle delivered. The generosity of the farming community and further afield continues with further convoys planned for September and October to head towards our new target of 500 vehicles driven across Europe by amazing volunteers.
I attended the excellent Arable Scotland event in my capacity as chair of the Scottish Society of Crop Research (SSCR) charity –please join at £15 for life.
Unlike many field days this was an independent, rigorously research based event, giving an opportunity to gain access to independent experts on both soil and crop.
Innovations such as robot cultivators and drills and new crops were showcased as well as a number of interesting workshops and seminars.
I was particularly taken by the talks on farming resilience which covered a wide range of aspects from profitability and importance of organic manure inputs, through soil stewardship and cover crops, to the mental health of farmers covered by Alix Ritchie of FarmStrong.
Whatever the perceived isolation of our industry at times, help is always there to provide support and the issue of mental health is far better recognised and supported than in the past.
On the subject of cover crops it’s important to note that solutions are site specific and growers need to ensure they are not providing disease and pest bridges by growing unsuitable species in cover crop mixtures.
Clubroot and eelworm are both good examples where problems can be unwittingly prolonged by the absence of good independent advice. The same is true for integrated pest management (IPM), which is bound to form part of the backbone of support schemes under the new Agricultural Bill.
As the first EU accredited IPM adviser in Scotland over thirty years ago I know how important sound independent advice is in this area. There are far too many suppliers promoting products and approaches in the regenerative and IPM arenas with inadequate or partial trial facts and evidence.
It is a good thing in our industry to have a long memory, as there are many cycles over the years whether in approaches or technology. There needs to be the correct balance between public goods, food security and a viable domestic farming industry.
A further opportunity to access good independent advice and food for thought for free will be at our Potatoes in Practice on August 8, at the James Hutton Institute. Even non potato growers will benefit from a visit to this excellent free event.
It was interesting to note the about face from Brewdog, relinquishing their trumpeted claims to be the first carbon negative brewer. This was due to both an increase in the costs of carbon credits (many improperly audited) and a major failure in the survival of trees planted in their much vaunted forest. Around 50% of their planted trees didn’t survive even 12 months. Seems it’s not as easy to grow plants as some carbon credits companies assumed. Who knew? Biology can be a stern mistress at times.
This is not the first failure of such carbon offsetting schemes, where marketing hype to hoover up carbon grants and 'ethical' kudos meets with harsh reality. You may recall my comments here on the Drax biomass power generation issues.
This is dependent on softwoods cleared in Canada being shipped across the Atlantic. Hardly a whole lifecycle environmental success? Driven by taxpayer subsidy and not real benefit or economics.
There are many examples of greenwashing and fraud in the carbon market and as is sadly often the case, the taxpayer or consumer pays the bill for little or no environmental gain.
Beware the greenwashers whether in the carbon, regenerative or government arenas.
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