As the Recommended Lists for cereals and oilseeds (RL) celebrates its 80th birthday this August, Paul Gosling and Jason Pole from AHDB reflect on the future of variety selection.
A Glimpse into the Future
What will the agricultural world look like in 2044? Will we see Earth’s population hit 10 billion? Will artificial intelligence and robotics make traditional farming methods obsolete? Will the UK reach its net zero targets? And will the RL still be the cornerstone for variety information?
Since the National Institute of Agricultural Botany (now NIAB) published the first recommended list on August 8, 1944, the RL has been a key resource for farmers.
Breeding for Uncertainty
Today, farmers face erratic weather patterns and changing pest and disease pressures while needing to protect the environment.
Farmers now seek varieties that offer resilience over productivity. This means varieties must handle waterlogging as well as drought and come with strong disease resistance.
Russ McKenzie, a Cambridgeshire farmer and member of the AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds Sector Council, highlighted the challenges. His farm has seen a surge in wheat rusts, questioning if this is temporary or the new normal.
Adapting to Change
Sustainability and yield development need not be mutually exclusive. Chris Guest, managing director at NPZ-UK, emphasised that improving yield efficiency per hectare remains a priority. For the Scotch Whisky Research Institute (SWRI), long-term sustainability of the barley crop is crucial.
One exciting development is a new distilling category for winter barley – non-GN (glycosidic nitrile) varieties. These offer much higher yields than their spring counterparts and could help northern growers avoid issues associated with dry springs.
Breeding Techniques
The pace of innovation in plant breeding over the past three decades has been unprecedented. Genomics has transformed how breeders manage crop genetics and track genes through breeding programs. High-throughput genetic screening now allows for early selection of traits, and rapid gene sequencing technology promises even faster advancements.
Recent research has sequenced over 800 wheat varieties and landraces, uncovering new genes for disease resistance and stress tolerance.
The Genetic Technology (Precision Breeding) Act, passed last year, allows for more modern breeding techniques, such as gene editing. This holds promise for faster genetic changes, although consumer acceptance remains a priority. However, Scottish farmers are unable to utilise crops bred through the technique.
New Traits
As pests and diseases evolve, breeders must continually seek new sources of resistance. Recent additions to the trait portfolio include resistance to BYDV (barley and wheat), orange wheat blossom midge (wheat), and clubroot (oilseed rape).
Chris Guest pointed out the challenges with clubroot resistance, which is based on a single dominant gene. Some strains of clubroot have overcome this resistance, highlighting the need for continuous innovation.
Richard Summers from RAGT emphasised the importance of horizon scanning to detect emerging threats and identify useful genetic material.
Variety Pipeline
The RL is part of a broader variety selection pipeline, with the UK Variety Lists (VL) playing a crucial role. The VL ensures that only the best varieties reach farmers, providing a vital filter between breeders and the RL.
Genomic technologies could streamline the variety registration process. APHA’s Michael Brown mentioned that international cooperation is needed for major changes, but the potential for using genotypic data to speed up the process is being explored.
The Role of Technology
While technology continues to advance, a complete takeover is not imminent. The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the value of drones for assessing RL trials, but also the irreplaceable importance of hands-on evaluation.
Technology will play an increasingly significant role, with tools like the RL app and variety selection tool already aiding farmers. The future may even see an AI-powered RL, but the focus will always be on data-driven, farmer-centric solutions.
Looking Ahead
Predicting the exact state of variety selection in 2044 is challenging. However, the RL will likely remain a cornerstone, continually adapting to the evolving needs of farmers and leveraging the latest technological advancements.
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