Weather

We are meant to be in the summer season now, but recent weather has been more like winter with temperatures well below average and a lot of windy days as well. Rainfall figures from Lochton near Coldstream for May were 97.9mm and for the year up to the end of May 348mm or 13.7 inches of rain plus some very wet days so far in June.

Other areas have had a lot more rain than Lochton and forecasters are telling us that Scotland is going to have one of the wettest summers on record with at least 50 days of rain over the next three months resulting in wet weather 50% above average and could be the dampest summer since 1912 when rain fell on 55 days.

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This past April was the fourth wettest in Scotland since records began in 1836 and the wettest April since 1947 and figures show that most of Scotland recorded more than double their average rainfall for April.

May was the warmest May on record back to 1884 which helped late sown crops and sunshine through June and July is now important for crops to support yield potential, especially for grain and pod fill for winter crops.

Crop condition

Winter crop condition scores have generally improved from the end of April, but the scores are still below the last two years. 55% of GB winter wheat is rated as in good or excellent condition, up from 45% a month ago and 34% at the end of March, but still below last year’s 85%.

Spring barley is rated at 55% as in good or excellent condition, compared to 73% at the end of May 2023 and the Scottish crop is catching up with the stage of development expected at this time of year.

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US winter wheat condition has improved to 49% good to excellent which is well ahead of last year at this time at 36%. US spring wheat is quoted at 74% compared to 64% last year at this time.

Their maize crop stands at 75%, well up on 64% last year. The US winter wheat harvest has started and nearly 10% has been completed which is much quicker than last year at around 5% completed.

Imports and Exports

The AHDB recently published the latest UK supply and demand estimates for crops for the 2023-24 season. Wheat imports are expected to remain firm for the remainder of the season due to the limited availability of domestic milling wheat. Wheat imports are estimated to reach 2.175mt which will be 60% up on the 2022-23 figure.

This is also the highest since the 2020-21 season, following the poor harvest. To date, from last July up to the end of March imports have totalled 1.637mt which is up 63% on the year.

Wheat exports are forecast to be 225,000t or 86% down on the year which is the lowest since the 2020-21 season and is well below the five-year average of 774,000t.

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So far, wheat exports have totalled 195,000t, down 83% on the same period last season. With a high level of wheat expected to still be on farm, plus the level of imports expected to be carried over for milling end of season stocks will be around 3.04mt which is up 1.09mt from 2022-23 and if realized will be the highest level of ending stocks this century.

Barley imports are estimated at 145,000t, up 64% on the year and above the five-year average of 81,000t and are mostly feed quality. So far barley imports have totalled 131,000t, up 137% on the same period last year.

Barley exports are low, estimated at 730,000t, down 35% on last year and below the five-year average of 1.66mt. From last July to March, exports totalled 625,000t, down 29% on last year. Lower forecast domestic consumption, combined with minimal exports leaves end-season stocks at 1.43mt and if realized this would be up 13% on the year and the highest stock level since 2014-15.

Despite a smaller than average crop of oats this season, imports of oats are expected to fall by 26% at 13,000t as there was a very low domestic usage resulting in a low import requirement. Oat exports are forecast to reach 130,000t, which is less than last year but would be the second highest level of oat exports since 2002-03. Even with low home use and high exports it would leave end-of-season stocks at 55,000t and if realized would be the smallest figure since 2005-06.

Wheat

Wheat futures have been quite volatile recently but currently have eased once again, July 2024 liffee feed wheat futures have fallen by £12/t over the past two weeks to stand at £186.85/t and November new crop wheat is down again by £12 to £207.50/t which again is a carry of over £20/t.

Futures prices have eased following pressure from Black Sea weather forecasts of frosts. Concerns about Russia’s wheat crop due to unfavourable weather continue to influence international wheat prices.

Weekly wheat production estimates for Russia continue to fall which originally was forecast at 90mt and is now forecast down to around 81mt. Their wheat export figure is now forecast down to around 45mt and Russia’s 2024-25 end stocks are forecast to drop from 11.4mt down to 7.99mt which would be the lowest level for five years.

Apart from the frost damage additional worries for Russia come from a return to high temperatures in Southern Russia with up to 35°C forecast over the next 10 days and will affect crops in Ukraine and Kazakhstan as well.

Australia is looking at an increased wheat crop this harvest due to a larger planted area of 23.6m ha, 6% above the 10-year average which will see a 12% increase in wheat production and 7% rise in barley production.

Barley

Feed barley continues to be a cheaper input to feed rations as the discount to wheat is around £25/t.

Spring sown barley crops have benefitted from some recent rain, but some fields have looked stressed recently as well and the recent unseasonal cold weather will not have helped, and sunshine is required to help these crops reach their full potential.

The UK has traditionally been an exporter of harvest feed barley to the EU, however with a smaller winter barley area year on year there will be less available and on the export market, cheaper offers of Baltic, Ukrainian and Russian origin feed barley will be available for the harvest position which are significantly undercutting current UK prices.

Maize

75% of US maize crops are rated as in good to excellent condition compared to last year’s rating of 64% as of June 2. Maize planting is ahead of schedule with 91% of the intended area now planted and the recent wet weather will be ideal for the newly planted crop.

US maize production is forecast to drop by 3% year-on-year to 377.5mt due to a smaller planted area after soybean prices looked better through last winter and US maize is forecast to account for 31% of global maize production.

Oilseed Rape

Oilseed rape prices have dropped, driven down by lower crude oil prices as well as improved canola growing conditions in Canada. Rapeseed delivered into Erith for June delivery was quoted at £403.50/t, down £3 on the week and for November delivery rapeseed was quoted at £420/t, down £5/t last week. The EU rapeseed crop for 2024-25 has been revised downwards to 17.9mt and if realized will be a 9.9% drop on the year. Australia’s rapeseed output is expected to drop by 5% after dry weather in Western and South Australia.

Pulses

The weather continues to be ideal for growing bean crops with some warm days and then more rain which will help yield potential but also bring out plenty of black bean aphids and bring concerns for chocolate spot disease that can spread very quickly and decimate the crop.

Prices have eased this past week by around £8/t but beans are still at a high price premium to wheat.