There is likely to be a higher carry-over of barley and wheat this year than the five-year average. The import of barley has been estimated at 145,000t, up 64% on the year, and above the five-year average of 81,000t. The majority of these imports is likely to be of feed quality with most heading to Northern Ireland.

Meanwhile, the export of barley has been sluggish compared to previous years with 730,000t leaving the country. This is down 35% on the year and well below the five-year average of 1.166mt.

AHDB estimates the commercial end-season stocks at 1.431mt up 13% on the year and the highest stocks level since 2014/15. Wheat imports are expected to remain firm for the remainder of the season due to a shortage of milling wheat and competitive prices abroad. Wheat imports are estimated to reach 2.175mt this season, up 60% on 2022-23 levels. This is also the highest since the 2020-21 season, following the poor harvest.

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On the other hand, wheat exports are forecast at 225,000t, down 86% on the year. This is the lowest since the 2020-21 season and is well below the five-year average of 774,000t. The AHDB estimate for commercial end-season stocks sits at 3.045mt which is the highest level of ending stocks this century.

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Despite a much smaller-than-average oat crop this season, imports of oats are expected to fall 26% on the year at 13,000t in 2023-24, with lacklustre domestic usage leading to a minimal import demand.

On the other hand, oat exports are forecast to reach 130,000t. While this would be down on the year, it would be the second-highest level of oat exports since 2002-03, behind only last season. AHDB estimated end-season stocks at 55,000t which is the smallest figure since 2005-06.